WHEN Pakatan Harapan shocked the country by capturing Putrajaya in the general election last year, it was riding on an anti-government wave.

At the time, there was widespread unhappiness with Barisan Nasional on how the Goods and Services Tax (GST) had raised living costs, and disgust over corruption and Najib Razak’s stewardship of the country finances.

Riding on this anti-BN wave, PH launched an overambitious manifesto and captured Johor – long thought to be an Umno bastion – by winning 36 out of 56 state seats, and 18 out of the 26 federal seats, including Tanjung Piai.

But 18 months later, the anti-BN wave that began in 2008, appears to be blowing over in the state. The best evidence came on Thursday night when cheers, instead of jeers, greeted Najib at the Kg Lubok Sawah ceramah in the last few heated nights of campaigning before polling in Tanjung Piai tomorrow.

While most have acknowledged that PH is doing a good job reining in corruption by nabbing high-profile Umno personalities such as Najib, his wife Rosmah Mansor, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Isa Samad and Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor, they want more.

Latching on to this sentiment, BN has centred its Tanjung Piai campaign on PH’s weakspots – unkept promises and inexperienced ministers. 

At the same time, BN has been touting the credentials of its man on the ballot, Wee Jeck Seng.

Having been the seat’s well-liked, two-time MP (2008-2018), it’s hard to find a voter here who has any complaints about Wee’s record. Many voters remember him as that “nice” MP who tended to their complaints or gave money to temples or mosques when it was needed.

The only blemish on his political career is the concerns highlighted in the Auditor-General’s 2017 report on the Vehicle Entry Permit (VEP) system, and which is now being probed by Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee. 

Wee has managed to brush off the attacks on VEP by blaming “politics”. However, he has never explained how the firm he is linked to received a contract from the Transport Ministry which was headed by an MCA president at the time.

PH’s Karmaine Sardini on the other hand, is a squeaky clean retired architect and imam, as prior to Tanjung Piai, he had only contested once in Pontian against BN’s Ahmad Maslan.

Other than being a former Tanjung Piai Umno treasurer, the 66-year-old Kuala Lumpur City Hall (DBKL) retiree is so devoid of controversy that Tanjung Piai voters remember Wee more readily than the Bersatu man.

BN tones down race rhetoric, PH on defensive

As many as 67% voters, however, will likely vote along party lines, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) has found in a survey.

In the Tanjung Piai by-election campaign, BN, or specifically Umno, dialled down the racial rhetoric to levels far below what it employed against PH in Cameron Highlands earlier this year.

One reason could be that the BN candidate is a Chinese and the other is because it wants to appeal to a wider audience. 

After completing its Malay unity agenda (Perpaduan Ummah) with Islamists PAS, Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan told The Malaysian Insight it was time to broaden the opposition’s appeal.

The only time BN directly played to the Malay gallery was during the launch of its Muafakat Nasional (national cooperation) in Kampung Lubok Sawah on Thursday night. Although, there was a line of non-Malay component party leaders at the launch, the event was mostly conducted by Umno and PAS. The non-Malays were just onlookers.

BN, however, did not explain what Muafakat Nasional is about given that its new bedfellow PAS previously said that non-Muslims would not be allowed to set policy. It only said that the BN-PAS partnership needed non-Malays to beat PH in GE15.

PH’s campaign on the other hand, has had to explain to voters why it has failed to fulfil its manifesto promises.

It is the same explanation PH ministers have been offering – that Putrajaya doesn’t have the funds to keep promises like delaying National Higher Education Fund loans repayments or abolishing tolls. And there is no money because the government has to pay for BN’s misdeeds, such as lopsided and inflated contracts, the 1MDB scandal or the non-existent Sabah gas pipeline.

Arithmetic vs sentiment

The arithmetic of Tanjung Piai’s last polls indicate a BN win hands down. 

Although, Wee lost to PH’s Dr Md Farid Md Rafik in GE14, the margin was razor thin at 1.17% (524 votes). 

The argument is, had PAS not fielded Nordin Othman and split the Malay vote, Wee should have won by more than 2,000 votes.

In the last elections Wee polled 46.12% (20,731 votes) to Dr Farid’s 47.29% (21,255) while Nordin had 6.59% (2,962). 

In other words, BN is banking on PAS’ support base besides exploiting the general dissatisfaction against PH. 

Although PAS is not contesting, it will be interesting to see how Gerakan, Berjasa and two independents will affect this by-election.

On the PH side, party activists are banking on improved door-to-door campaigning to help boost their Malay support while hanging on to the Chinese vote.

A recent study on Tanjung Piai showed PH was nine percentage points ahead of BN.

Both sides agree that which way the bloc of 7,000-8,000 outstation voters (12%) swing  will decide the by-election.

In the past 14 days, the campaign in the town areas of Pontian and Kukup has revolved around big ceramahs and events. In villages, both sides go door-to-door to conduct mini ceramah in the evenings. 

Both sides have worked hard in the past 14 days. If BN wins here tomorrow, it will surely mark the end of the anti-BN wave.

But if PH wins, it could be back to the drawing board for the new opposition and its “Muafakat Nasional”. – November 15, 2019.