THE race for Tg Piai is still open and will depend on which party is better at mobilising their vote banks, said political survey outfit Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

This is because a high number of voters reside outside the Johor parliamentary seat that will hold a by-election on November 16.

According to IDE’s survey conducted from October 18 to 20, 56% of those polled said they have family members who reside outside the constituency.

Of the 1,518 respondents, 33% said they have one to two family members who lived outside Tg Piai, while 15% have three to four family members who lived outside the area.

Another 3% had five to six family members residing elsewhere, while 5% said they have more than seven. Only 44% of those polled said they no family members living outside Tg Piai.

“This is crucial as previous by-elections have shown how important turnout can affect results,” said IDE chief executive Mohammad Redzuan Othman today.

He said past by-elections since May 9 last year – Semenyih, Cameron Highlands and Rantau – were won by Barisan Nasional (BN), showing how effective the Umno machinery was in mobilising its voters.

“It will be interesting to see if they can do the same (in Tg Piai), without the government machinery.”

Unlike BN, Redzuan said parties under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) ruling coalition do not have a huge membership base.

Bersatu has a slight edge, he added, because it is better prepared this time compared to the Semenyih by-election.

“During our survey (of the Tg Piai seat) last week, we noticed that Bersatu has begun setting up its stations, compared to when it contested in Semenyih.

“Added to a more experienced candidate, Bersatu’s chances are better this time round.”

Bersatu will pit former Pontian candidate Karmaine Sardini against BN’s former two-time Tg Piai MP Wee Jeck Seng in the by-election.

During the last election, Karmaine lost to Umno’s Ahmad Maslan in Pontian by just 833 votes.

Redzuan said PH has a number of elected leaders who are from Johor, such as Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shaari and Selangor assemblyman Hee Loy Sian who could aid in campaigning.

The by-election was necessitated by the death of Md Farid Md Rafik, of Bersatu, on September 21 of heart complications. He was 42.

Farid, who was a deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Department and an anaesthesiologist by profession, captured the seat in the 14th general election in May 2018.

The first-time MP polled 21,255 votes to beat Wee (BN-MCA) and Nordin Othman (PAS) by 524 votes. Wee had garnered 20,731 votes and Nordin, 2,962 votes.

Polling for the Tg Piai (P165) parliamentary seat will be held on November 16. Filing of nominations will be held tomorrow, and early voting is set for November 12.

According to the Election Commission, there are 52,986 registered voters – 52,698 ordinary voters, 280 early and eight overseas voters.

The racial breakdown of voters is 57% Malays, 42% Chinese and 1% Indian. – November 1, 2019.