THE drama over the power-transition plan between Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim is not necessarily bad for the economy, but it is a distraction that affects Pakatan Harapan’s credibility, said analysts and a pact insider.

The uncertainty does not augur well for PH and Malaysia if it drags on, said Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political science lecturer Dr Azmil Tayeb.

“Typically, in a parliamentary democracy, the leader of the largest party in the ruling coalition would assume the position of prime minister. However, this is not the case in Malaysia. It is a bad precedent to set.

“In a normal democratic practice, (Deputy Prime Minister) Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail has a stronger claim than Dr Mahathir, since PKR is the largest party in coalition.

“The position of prime minister in Malaysia is a game of elite negotiation.

“It is bad for democracy and makes PH look bad to voters, because it makes the leaders look power hungry and oblivious to the needs of the people,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

After PH wrested Putrajaya in last year’s general election, the power-handover timeline was widely reported as two years, based on an agreement between the four PH components. However, the exact details of the deal have never been disclosed to the public.

Meanwhile, no one from PH has disputed media reports on the two-year timeline. Now, the shifting timelines as stated by both Dr Mahathir and PKR president Anwar have taken even coalition members by surprise.

Dr Mahathir yesterday said there is no date set for the handover to Anwar as much work has yet to be done.

Anwar responded several hours later, saying there have been discussions between the two, but no specific date is set.

In between, Dr Wan Azizah urged everyone to stop quibbling over when the handover of the prime minister’s post will take place, saying the succession plan has been agreed on within PH and that there are more urgent matters requiring attention.

A PKR source said Dr Mahathir’s recent remarks in the US, that he has “at the most, three years, perhaps”, caught everyone by surprise, with some suggesting that he could stay on till 2022.

“Some of us believe that it was prompted by Anwar, who said he will take over in May 2020 (two years after PH won federal power).”

Anwar’s interview with Bloomberg, where he said “it should be around that time”, also surprised the PKR insider, who attended the party’s retreat in Port Dickson earlier this year.

He said it is inappropriate for Anwar to talk about taking over next May, when just two months earlier, the PKR president had said any announcement on the power transition would come from both Dr Mahathir and himself.

“Maybe, that’s why Dr Mahathir said what he said in the US.”

The source said Anwar had told the gathering of party assemblymen and parliamentarians in July that Dr Mahathir did not want to announce any fixed date, as he did not want to be a “lame duck” prime minister after making the announcement.

Dr Mahathir, it seemed, felt he was weakened after announcing his resignation as prime minister during the Umno general assembly in 2002.

Although he passed the reins to Abdullah Ahmad Badawi only in October 2003, Dr Mahathir noticed that people were no longer heeding his word, making his job harder.

To avoid this, Anwar had said, he and Dr Mahathir agreed that they would not make any announcement until both were ready.

Good or bad uncertainty?

For USM’s Azmil, the mixed messages from Anwar and Dr Mahathir indicate the distrust between the two.

“I feel that if Dr Mahathir has an alternative successor in mind, he might make a play for him or her.

“The difficulty to lock down a specific date can be chalked up to divisions within PH, and between Dr Mahathir and Anwar’s supporters. Both groups want their leader to be prime minister.”

On the economic side, Socio-Ecoomic Research Centre (SERC) executive director Lee Heng Guie noticed that private investments have been stagnant.

“Overall, private investments have not moved much, hovering around 1.2% (in the first half of this year, or 1H2019). The slowdown in private investments has been there since the previous government.”

Bank Negara Malaysia’s forecast for private investments this year is 4.9%, while SERC estimates them to be 2.6%, revised down from 4.3%.

Private investors are cautious due to the US-China trade war and domestic property market overhang, said Lee.

“While approved foreign direct investments (FDIs) remain robust, direct domestic investments actually contracted by 29.6%.”

In 1H2019, FDIs increased 97.2% to RM49.5 billion, said the Malaysian Investment Development Authority.

However, Lee cautioned that the prime minister’s transition remains a lingering problem for investors.

“They are uncertain about the direction and continuity of the government’s policies, and until things are clearer, they are likely to stay on the sidelines.”

However, Azmil does not believe that the uncertainty about the power transition is problematic for investors.

“Only if the uncertainty leads to political chaos and a fragmented government. As of now, the government is still intact and stable.”

But for the rest, the political drama continues. – October 4, 2019.