BARISAN Nasional’s Mohamad Hasan will emerge victorious in the Rantau by-election, predicts Ilham Centre.

The think-tank today said a survey of 396 respondents showed that voters are largely leaning towards the former Negri Sembilan menteri besar, who had held the state seat for three terms.

Ilham Centre executive director Azlan Zainal said many respondents viewed Mohamad, or Tok Mat, as he is fondly known, as more credible than Pakatan Harapan’s Dr S. Streram.

“(Mohamad’s) approachability and direct access to the people, as well as his humility and caring attitude… have captured the hearts of voters.

“Respondents rated his credibility at 81.6% to the PH candidate’s 17.7%.”

Of those polled, 87.4% said Mohamad has a big advantage due to his good track record in the state, as well as him being a local.

They said Dr Streram is “a relative outsider” and not popular among Rantau folk.

“Rembau PKR branch head R. Tanggam is more popular among voters,” said Azlan.

Shifting support

The Ilham Centre survey found that 24.5% of respondents have shifted support from PH to BN.

This is due to several factors, with 81.6% of those polled citing Mohamad’s credibility, 66.7% (cost-of-living issues), 65.4% (PH’s failure to fulfil manifesto promises) and 50.8% (state government not being run satisfactorily).

Of the Malays polled, 85.6% said PH has failed to protect Malay-Muslims’ rights.

Indian vote split

Although PH’s decision to field Dr Streram is to secure the support of Indians, who make up 27% of voters in Rantau, the plan has backfired, resulting in a split in the community’s vote, said the study.

“Only 46.6% of Indians have given their commitment to vote for Dr Streram. The rest are inclined to vote for BN or have not yet decided,” said Azlan.

He said after the change of government, Indians find that the PH administration has failed to properly address their needs.

“Indian voters are disappointed with the government, particularly when it comes to the issue of protecting their economic standing and welfare.

“The absence of a credible Indian leader in the government who is willing to defend the community’s rights is one of the reasons for the significant change in voting patterns among Indians.”

Perception of PH machinery

Despite there having been a string of by-elections since the general election last May, the PH machinery is still seen as uncoordinated, said Azlan.

“They are seen as moving in their own parties and having no coordination… In voters’ eyes, the PH machinery is still undependable.”

PH’s campaign for the Rantau polls seems to be heavily reliant on PKR president Anwar Ibrahim’s star power, he said.

“Other leaders who came down to campaign did not have a big impact on voters.”

Azlan added that the PH machinery is being run by outsiders, while Mohamad and other locals are taking charge in BN’s.

“The BN machinery is seen as more focused and systematic… PH has been focusing on pre-14th general election issues, and is not seen as a pact that’s already the government.”

Given the above, he said, BN’s win on Saturday is “all but guaranteed”.

“To remain in competition, PH needs a strategy that is powerful enough to curb BN’s progress.”

With two days to go before polling, PH is working to ensure it can maintain the Indian and Chinese votes it got in GE14, and secure at least 20% more Malay votes, he said. – April 11, 2019.