AS campaigning for the Rantau by-election reaches its mid-way point, Barisan Nasional (BN) appears to be holding on to its lead over Pakatan Harapan (PH), largely due to the track record and personality of its candidate Mohamad Hasan.

BN campaign officials said based on the reception by Rantau’s more than 20,000 voters in the past week, the opposition coalition is on target to win by 1,500 votes on April 12.

But PH activists are not giving up. They are hoping to scrape through a victory by relying on the constituency’s significant Indian and Chinese voters, who make up about 46% of the electoral roll.

The ruling coalition’s activists said their strategy is to ensure they secure upwards of 80% of the vote from these two blocs and about 15% to 20% of votes from the Malays.

The Malay community makes up 54% of the constituency’s voters.

This is why PH has spent the greater part of last week going door-to-door and holding small-scale ceramah in neighbourhoods where Indians make up the majority.

Their primary message is that decades of Barisan Nasional rule in Negeri Sembilan have failed to help the community.

Despite his advantage, Mohamad, who is also de facto Barisan Nasional chairman, is not resting on his laurels.

He is pulling out all stops to make sure he gets more than 90% of the Malay vote while picking up support in Chinese and Indian enclaves.

“Mat Hassan (Mohamad) is not taking things lightly. He is going door-to-door to remind voters what he has done for them during his three terms as menteri besar,” said Mohd Azlan Zainal of the polling and research firm Ilham Centre.

“He is under pressure to deliver a convincing victory and he needs to ensure that he gets all the Malay votes and votes of Chinese and Indians,” said Azlan, whose firm has been surveying sentiments among voters since the start of the official campaign period on March 30.

Mohamad is defending the Rantau seat, which he has held for three terms against PH’s Dr S. Streram, and two independent candidates Malar Rajaram and Mohd Nor Yassin.

In the May 9 general election, Mohamad won uncontested after Streram was barred from standing as a candidate by Election Commission (EC) officials. 

The Election Court subsequently nullified the results in Rantau after it found that the EC officials had acted improperly to bar Streram.

Rantau, with Paroi, Kota and Chembong, make up the Rembau parliamentary seat that was won by BN’s Khairy Jamaluddin last May.

The constituency’s 20,926 voters are organised into 14 polling districts. Five of the them are Malay super majority stations (above 70%), four simple Malay majority stations (50%-70%), while the rest are mixed.

According to Rembau’s GE14 data, voters in Rantau gave PH 8,210 (48.06%), compared to BN’s 7,798 (45.65%) and PAS’ 777 votes (4.55%). The difference was 412 votes in favour of PH.

PH won five out the 14 stations, while BN took the rest. After factoring a PAS-Umno tie-up, BN could already win Rantau this time with 365 votes.

PH still hopeful, BN not complacent

Although a majority of Rantau’s non-Malay voters had backed PH in GE14, it could not be assumed they would do so again this time, said Ilham’s Azlan.

“PH needs to get at least a 65% turnout among non-Malay supporters in order to have a fighting chance of winning.”

To achieve this, PH has deployed heavy weights such as PKR president and prime minister-in-waiting Anwar Ibrahim to campaign extensively in Kuala Sawah and Bandar Ekar, two polling districts with significant populations of Indians and Chinese voters.

“We have our special teams to monitor out station voters and to get them out to vote,” said R. Thiruchelvam, Streram’s campaign manager.

“We are in touch with almost all the outside voters. Many youngsters have agreed to come back. At least 70% will come back to vote we are banking on that.”

PH is also paying as much attention to Malay voters even though most in the community backed the BN in GE14, said Thiruchelvam.

“Chances of (Malays) changing to PH is very high. But they’re keeping quiet about it,” said Thiruchelvam, adding that Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail has made inroads into Rantau’s Umno strongholds.

“The problem is we never advertised what we did for the Malays and we are slowly doing it now. For instance, Menteri Besar (Aminuddin Harun) increased salaries for imams from RM200 to RM400.”

Negeri Sembilan Deputy Umno Youth chief Muhd Sufian Maradzi said BN’s aim of winning by a 1,500-vote majority was less than what Mohamad received in the 13th general election in 2013.

“The demographics of the seat has changed since then and in GE14. We don’t want to be over confident and risk being complacent,” Sufian told The Malaysian Insight.

Sufian attributes BN’s win to Mohamad’s popularity and the variety issues that have plagued the PH federal government. – April 7, 2019