WEST Java defies easy characterisation.

Indonesia’s most populous province and the battleground of its April 17 presidential elections is diverse. 

It has a population of more than 48 million – 33 million of those are registered voters.

Bandung, its capital, is famed for its Bohemian arts scene. Its other major urban centres, Bogor and Bekasi, are virtual suburbs of Jakarta.

Yet, the regency of Garut (some two hours southeast of Bandung) is rural, mountainous and agrarian.     

It is part of the Parahyangan region, the heartland of the Sunda people, known for its religious conservatism.

In 2014, President Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, lost West Java (and Bandung) to controversial ex-general Prabowo Subianto, with each gaining 40.22% to 59.78% of the vote, respectively. 

This year will see a rematch between the two. The stakes are higher, and the rhetoric has gotten more heated. 

Scores of West Javans turned out for the protests that rocked Jakarta from 2016-2017 against the-then governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, or Ahok, who allegedly insulted Islam. Ahok, Jokowi’s former deputy, was then defeated in the 2017 gubernatorial elections and later jailed.

The Ahok affair was a blow to Jokowi. He has always struggled with conservative Muslim voters and hoaxes questioning his religious allegiances. 

He has since named the 76-year-old conservative ulama Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate, to the dismay of secularists.

Last year, a ticket backed by Prabowo’s Gerindra party and its Islamist PKS allies stunned pollsters with a second-place finish in West Java’s gubernatorial elections, when most had them running third in a field of four. 

Jokowi, unsurprisingly, has hence paid much attention to West Java during his first term, visiting it more than 130 times by some estimates.

It has also arguably benefitted the most from his massive infrastructure push, which includes the development of a new international airport in Kertajati. 

And yet – visiting Bandung and Garut recently – the province seems still too close to call.

Most people I spoke to admitted that the economy has improved, with greater job opportunities in manufacturing and e-commerce.

Moreover, Prabowo – now on his third attempt for the presidency – no longer electrifies some voters as he once did.

But the otherwise laid-back West Javans I spoke to were reluctant to predict whether their province would flip.

The forces of religious conservatism and regionalism (with some Sundanese seeing Jokowi as “too Javanese”) may mean that victory there could yet elude the incumbent. 

Also, as a local reporter told us, “‘Sosok’ (i.e. figure, or character) and a smart vision is important to the Sunda”. 

Prabowo’s status as an ex-general still resonates in the province, which hosts several military installations and has a proud martial tradition. 

But it goes beyond just identity politics. 

Roads in Garut are poor, frustrating local ambitions for the area to become a tourism hub. 

The infamous traffic jams (dubbed “macet”) are as bad as ever all-round. 

A poultry seller in a Bandung market we visited felt prices for basic goods were better managed in the past.

There was a feeling that Jokowi has not done enough to boost education, especially by not updating curriculums.

However, re-election could still be his if he wins big in East and Central Java (his home province), while improving on his 2014 West Java performance. 

Jokowi has been boosted by the support of the moderate Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) religious organisation, which is influential across Java.

The incumbent has multiple pathways to victory; West Java is a must-win for Prabowo.

Carrying the province would boost Jokowi’s mandate, helping him push through more projects and radical reforms as well as according him greater say in choosing his 2024 successor. 

It would demonstrate that the deeply religious West Java voters have rejected the sectarianism of the president’s foes in favour of his economy-driven agenda and commitment – however haphazard – to tolerance.

Losing it may signal that Indonesia’s ethno-religious tinged political divide is crystalising.

This could set the stage for a more disciplined demagogue than Prabowo to rise.

The choices before Indonesian voters are stark. 

But all this was far from my mind when I attended Mass at Bandung’s Roman Catholic St Peter’s Cathedral. 

Non-Muslims only make up about 3% of West Java’s population. There have been incidents, especially in Bekasi, of churches experiencing persecution.  

But the Cathedral was overflowing and the congregation multicultural: pribumis prayed side-by-side with Chinese and Caucasians.

The liturgy was in Bahasa Indonesia and the Gospel reading was on the Parable of the Prodigal Sons: a story about family, repentance and reconciliation. Towards the end of the service, prayers for a peaceful election and for all the candidates were read. 

A few days before, I had gone to an exhibition at the National Gallery in Jakarta called “The Monster Chapter II: Momentum” by the artist J. Ariadhitya Pramuhendra, who was raised Catholic.

The main piece was a candle-lit chamber filled with Christian-themed art and church pews that viewers could sit on. 

Indonesians of all walks of life – and faiths – flocked to the show. 

Indonesia’s pluralism is far from perfect: but perhaps – one hopes – it is more deeply-rooted whatever happens this April 17. – April 4, 2019.

* Keith Leong is KRA Group’s head of research.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.