I SPENT the last week travelling around Thailand. I started out in Bangkok and made my way north, to Chiangmai, before heading for the southern provinces.

Thais, as you may have heard, will go to the polls on 24 March 2019. This will be the first contested elections in the kingdom since the 2014 coup. 

So many things seem up in the air. Will General-turned-politician Prayut Chan-o-cha, manage to stay in power via the military-friendly Palang Pracharat party?

Or will the Shinawatra family – Thaksin and his sister Yingluck – stage yet another political comeback via their Pheu Thai vehicle?

What role will the other parties like the old-school Democrat Party (headed by Oxonian Abhisit Vejjajiva) and the Future Forward Party with its photogenic tycoon leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit play? 

What impact will the new King Maha Vajiralongkorn have on the post-election order?

Can Thailand truly return to democracy? Can its seemingly endless cycle of political polarisation and coups come to an end?

It is significant that early voting last weekend saw nearly 2.2 million Thais cast their ballot—a turnout of almost 90%. 

This certainly suggests that ordinary Thais are yearning for a return to some kind of political normalcy. 

But whether or not the elections will create a government that is the actual manifestation of the will of the Thai people is another matter altogether.

The election system emplaced under military supervision arguably makes it difficult for parties to win a clear majority.

What is on the ballot on Sunday is 500 seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives. 

But the next prime minister – whoever it is – must be elected by the House sitting alongside the 250-member Senate, who are all essentially appointees of the military-backed government. 

This means that Thailand’s next leader needs to get at least 376 votes. But it also means that Prayuth has a 250 plus head start, plus what Palang Pracharat can win. 

But what will it mean for Thailand if its next prime minister is someone who has basically lost an election and is only in government by the support of an unelected upper house?

And even if the anti-junta parties can pull off a veritable miracle (by winning 75% of the seats up for grabs), how long before any government they set up runs afoul of Thailand’s conservative establishment – the royalists, military and judiciary – like so many previous pro-Thaksin governments have done?   

The elections could very well prove to be just a curtain-raiser for intense jockeying, if not outright turmoil, ahead. 

But all this seemed remote in Chiangmai, which is the bailiwick of the Shinawatra family.

The north and northeast of Thailand have always been firmly in their corner, thanks to their populist policies like the “One Million Baht, One Village Fund” microcredit programme and a highly-popular THB30 universal healthcare policy, reportedly the country’s first. 

As a 55-year old accessory shop owner told me, “Those who benefitted from this (the 30-baht scheme) often thanked their doctor and Thaksin”. 

The farmers outside Chiangmai I spoke to generally regard his premiership as “a golden era”. 

Their love for him is unquestionable. Whether the north and northeast can power the Shinawatras back from exile and into power again is less certain. 

People in the city’s Worroros and Kad Na Mor markets seemed generally excited about the election, although the old people were predictably less so.

What they could all apparently agree on was that the economy had declined over the last five years—laying the blame for this squarely on Prayuth. 

Here, he’s seen as ineffective and out of touch. 

Small business owners complained about rising costs of living and low purchasing power. One clothing merchant in Worroros alleged a 60% drop in business since the coup. 

Still, fear of the regime is potent here. Most of the people I spoke to wouldn’t tell me who they would vote for or give me their names. From what could be deduced, their sympathies seemed to lie with the Pheu Thai.

It seems a shame that such a warm, engaging people like the Thais should be caught between hope and fear.

It’s also a pity that the rift in Thailand seems almost intractable and that the country remains forever stuck on the cusp of achieving its true potential. 

These feelings are often all too familiar in this part of the world. 

One can only hope there will be better days ahead of the Thais and their beautiful country. – March 22, 2019.

* Aiman Afif Affifudin is analyst and researcher at KRA Group.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.