UMNO will have to rely on PAS, a party it once called “kampung party” if it wants to beat Bersatu to win the Semenyih by-election, said political observers.

“This is a traditional Umno seat that it has won 11 out of 12 general elections,” said Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) research manager Khairul Ariffin.

Pakatan Harapan was only able to break Barisan Nasional’s winning streak during last year’s elections because the anti-BN sentiments were overwhelming, he said.

“Although Pakatan won by 8,964 votes, it only had 50.76% of the popular vote in Semenyih. So, BN’s chance here, while slim, is better than the Sg Kandis by-election,” he added.

Sg Kandis was the first Selangor state seat to hold a by-election following GE14. Local favourite Zawawi Ahmad Mughni defeated Umno’s Lokman Adam Noor by 5,842 votes despite a paltry turnout of 49.4%.

In GE14, in Semenyih, Bersatu’s Bakhtiar Mohd Nor (23,428) held off BN’s two-term assemblyman Johan Abd Aziz (14,464), PAS’ Mad Shahmiour Mat Kosim (6,966) and PSM’s S. Arutchelvan (1,293) to wrest the seat from BN.

Bakhtiar died of a heart attack on January 11, triggering the state seat’s by-election.

The PAS factor

With PAS joining hands with Umno, BN stands a good chance to wrest back the seat, said Khairul.

“But to do that, it has to make sure it can hold on to its share of votes and convert PAS’ votes.”

IDE, which was started by former UMCedel chief researcher Prof Dr Redzuan Othman and tracks voter sentiment in Selangor, said Semenyih will be another test for the PAS-Umno cooperation.

“Less than 40% of PAS votes went to Umno in Sg Kandis and in Jelai (in Cameron Highlands), it was only around 50% despite being an east coast state. It will be interesting whether PAS can convince its grassroots to vote for their former enemies.”

According to IDE, BN has around 10,000 hardcore voters in Semenyih while PAS has around 4,000.

Khairul said PAS support varied according to the different states and around half of those polled in Selangor did not back the Umno-PAS cooperation.

Details of the survey will be released on Thursday.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Dr Kamarul Zaman Yusoff said BN needs to grab all the PAS votes to stand a chance in Semenyih.

“Even then, BN will still be short of 1,998 votes to beat Pakatan. BN and PAS will have to work very hard to get Malay fence-sitters to support them.”

Kamarul said the danger for PH, however, is if PSM and former BN component Gerakan also contest in Semenyih.

“Some Pakatan voters might want to use this by-election to protest against what they perceive to be unfulfilled manifesto promises,” said the political science lecturer.

Malay-Islam campaign

Emboldened by its success in Cameron Highlands, Umno is likely to turn up the racial and religious rhetoric again in the 70% Malay majority Semenyih, said Kamarul.

“What makes Semenyih different is the emergence of two other issues against BN and PAS.

“The first will be former Umno president Najib Razak’s corruption trial and the second is the backlash PAS has to face after president Abdul Hadi Awang withdrew his defamation suit against Sarawak Report.

“Both are 1MDB related and will highlight the previous government’s corruption issues,” said Kamarul.

Kg Sungai Jai resident and army veteran Zainuddin Mohd laughed off the suggestion that race and religion will work in Semenyih.

“We are not the same as the voters in Jelai,” said Zainuddin, who used to serve with the 9th Malay Regiment based in Slim Camp in Cameron Highlands.

“In the last elections, we voted BN out because of corruption and it will be the same this time round,” he said confidently.

“If not for GE14, we would not have known he had lorry-loads of cash,” said the 63-year-old, referring to Najib.

Less than two weeks after the last general election, police recovered RM114 million from a condominium belonging to Najib’s son, Ashman, and daughter, Nooryana.

While Zainuddin acknowledged PH’s shortcomings, the veteran said the new government should be given more time to turn things around.

“This is because the alternative, which is Umno, is unthinkable at the moment. It is only trying to lie low and do good to regain power. After that, it will go back to its old ways.”

For 35-year-old Akmal, who also lives in Kg Sungai Jai, PH deserves another chance.

“But I hope they look into improving job opportunities here and the property prices.”

While Semenyih has been transformed with several townships being built by Sunway, IJM and SP Setia, the prices remain out of reach for most of the young working adults, he said. – February 12, 2019.