Selangor PKR grassroots fear three-cornered fights with PAS


Amin Iskandar

PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail leaving the party's headquarters after a political bureau meeting on August 29. Pakatan Harapan announced earlier the same day that it will not cooperate with PAS in the 14th general election, a move that PKR grassroots say will hurt the party's chances. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Hasnoor Hussain, August 31, 2017.

DESPITE running Selangor for two terms, grassroots members of the state PKR fear enmity with PAS could lead to losses in Malaysia’s richest state in the next general election.

The decision by Pakatan Harapan (PH) to reject any cooperation with PAS in the 14th general election (GE14) has been greeted with mixed feelings.


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Comments


  • You must be sleeping or just plain stupid..not following the present scenario huh?

    Posted 6 years ago by Ali Along

  • Dr. Syed Husin Ali could be right, since just as PKR won certain seats with the help of votes of PAS supporters in one-on-one fights when PAS was part of the Pakatan and PAS could also have won certain seats with the help of the votes of PKR supporters.

    So now in three-cornered fights, between UMNO/BN, PKR and PAS, PAS could lose some seats which it currently holds and PKR could also lose some seats which it currently holds. However, the question remains as to which of the candidates will get at least the largest minority of seats (i.e. with under 50% of the vote in the constituency contested and thus win the seat.

    Likewise, in a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, Pribumi and PAS, the Pribumi candidate could draw away votes from UMNO/BN, though who would get the most votes, even the largest minority remains to be seen.

    In a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, PAN and PAS, it looks almost certain that UMNO/BN will win, unless there is so much dissatisfaction with UMNO/BN over issues such as the rising cost of living, that either PAS or PAN wins the seat.

    GE 14 will be "fun" to watch, especially with three, four, five, six, etc - cornered fights.

    In 2013, Azmin won Gombak with 54,827 votes or 52.0%
    His opponent Raman Ismail of the BN got 50,093 votes or 47.53%
    An independent candidate Said Nazar Abu Baker got a mere 474 votes 0.45%
    Turnout in 2013 was 107,140 electors or 86.90% of registered voters in Gombak

    In 2008, Azmin Ali won with 40,334 votes or 54.65%
    His one-on-one opponent Said Anuar Said Ahmad of the BN got 33,467 votes or the remaining 45.35%
    Azmin got 2.65 fewer percentage points of votes in 2013 than in 2008.
    Turnout in 2008 was 75,619 voters or 76.26% of registered voters.

    Going back further to 2004, the BN's Raman Ismail got 39,870 votes 59.93%
    His one-on-one opponent Mohd Hatta Md. Ramli of PAS got 26,663 votes or 40.07%
    Turnout in 2004 was 67,358 voters or 73.04 of registered voters.

    We can expect the number of registered voters in Gombak to have increased somewhat by GE14 and assuming that in a two-cornered fight between PKR and BN, PKR gets 60,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, so Azmin of PKR retains the seat.

    However, in a three-cornered fight in Gombak between PKR, BN and PAS, PAS gets say 27,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, that would leave PKR with 33,000 votes (60,000 - 27,000 votes), so BN wins with the largest minority of votes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gombak_(federal_constituency)

    A similar situation actually hapepned in the Kota Damansara state seat in 2013.

    In 2008, Dr. Mohd Nasir Hashim of Parti Sosialis Malaysia running under a PKR ticket got 11,846 votes or 52.38%
    His one-on-one opponent Zein Isma Ismail of the BN got 10,771 votes or 47.62%
    So Dr. Nasir won Kota Damansara

    In 2013, in a six-cornered fight, Halimaton Saadiah Bohan of the BN got 16,387 votes or 42.27%
    Still contesting under the PKR ticket, Dr. Nasir got 14,860 votes or 38.33%
    PAS entered the fray with Ridzuan Ismail who got 7,312 votes of 18.86%
    Independent candidate Halmi Omar got 116 votes or 0.30%
    Independent candidate Edros Abdullah got 57 votes or 0.15%
    Independent candidate Suppiah Anandan got 39 votes or 0.10%

    BN won Kota Damansara with the largest minority of 42.27%

    Going back to 2004 when BN stood head-on-head with PAS,
    Mohd Mokhtar Ahmad Dahlan of the BN got 12,926 votes or 72.81%
    Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof of PAS got 4,827 votes or 27.19%
    BN won of course.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Damansara_(state_constituency)

    When PAS was part of Pakatan, PAS loyalists would vote for the PKR or DAP candidate where no PAS candidate stood but now that PAS loyalists are split between PAS and PAN, PAS' former vote could be about halved in a contest involving PAS and PAN (a.k.a. Amanah), such as happened in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar byelections in which BN retained the two seats with a slim majority of votes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sungai_Besar_(federal_constituency)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Kangsar_(federal_constituency)

    GE 14 will be more interesting, with PAS' exit from Pakatan, then the split in PAS into PAS and PAN, with PAN joining Pakatan, then with the formation of Pribumi by ex-UMNO people, then Pribumi joining Pakatan.

    Now PAS can split the Pakatan vote, PAN will split the PAS vote as it did in the above two byelections and Pribumi can split the UMNO vote.

    So what happens if BN wins the largest minority of seats in parliament. Can it rule as a minority government or will it have to find a party with enough seats to form a coalition government with a simple majority of seats?

    Posted 6 years ago by IT Scheiss