DESPITE sharing the prime minister’s name, Mahathir will not be voting for Pakatan Harapan in the Cameron Highlands by-election.

“I want the old government back. It was very good to the Orang Asli. The new government has not done anything for us,” said the 65-year-old, whose full name is Mahathir Yoktegos (pic, below).

He is one out of 1,095 voters in the Semai settlement of Pos Sinderut. Orang Asli communities like his have seen some of the fiercest campaigning in the by-election, which reached its mid-point yesterday.

In a seat that was won by fewer than 600 votes in the 14th general election, an extra 1,000 votes can make a huge difference for either coalition.

With five days to go before voting, both PH and Barisan Nasional are trying their best to win over the likes of Mahathir for that extra 100 to tilt the by-election in their favour.

According to PH and BN activists, there are a few reasons the Semai are the most intensely courted compared with Malays, Chinese and Indians.

PH activist Muhammad Azmi Abdullah said BN has locked up the biggest bloc of voters – the Malay-Muslims who make up 33.7% of all voters and who are concentrated in Jelai.

“Jelai has always been a BN fortress. The Jelai state constituency is also the seat of the Pahang Menteri Besar and BN chairman Wan Rosdy (Wan Ismail),” said Azmi, who is Cameron Highlands Bersatu secretary.

PH, meanwhile, is optimistic of maintaining its support among Chinese and Indian voters, who comprise 29.5% and 14.9%, and who are mostly in the Tanah Rata state constituency, where the vegetable farms and tourist areas are located. Tanah Rata was won by PH’s Chiong Yoke Kong in GE14 by 3,589 votes.

Since almost all the Orang Asli reside in their kampung and have few outstation voters unlike the other communities, it is comparatively easier to canvas for their support.

The importance of the Semai vote was seen in how BN decided to field its first ever Orang Asli parliamentary candidate Ramli Mohd Nor, despite the fact that since the seat was created in 2004, it has always been given to MIC, the coalition’s Indian party.

Activists from Impian Sarawak, who are experts at working with indigenous tribal people, have been camped out in the villages since the Election Court declared the Cameron Highlands parliamentary seat vacant. 

There is also a contingent of Kelantan DAP, many of whose members are Orang Asli activists from Gua Musang.

DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang and prime-minister-in-waiting Anwar Ibrahim have made several visits to the settlements, while PH component Bersatu has set up a branch in Pos Betau, which has 1,129 voters.

Shifting fortunes

In GR14, BN retained Cameron Highlands by a mere 597 votes. It had the biggest support among the Malay-Muslims and Orang Asli, according to DAP assistant national director for political education Ong Kian Ming.

In contrast, PH won 76.9% of all votes in polling districts where Chinese voters are the majority. In Indian-majority polling districts, PH won 61.4% of all votes. In this by-election, PH local leaders, such as Chiong, are confident that it can maintain the same level of support from these communities in Tanah Rata.

In the Malay-majority polling districts, BN won 46.9% of all votes in GE14, according to Ong’s data. PAS, which cornered 41.9% of all votes in these districts, has pledged to get its members to vote for BN.

In a seat that was won by fewer than 600 votes in GE14, an extra 1,000 votes can make a huge difference, admitted Bersatu’s Azmi (pic, left).

“The most, I believe we can do, is win 10% of all votes in the Malay-Muslim districts,” said Azmi, a former teacher in Felda settlements of Sg Koyan.

The Umno-PAS tie up will see BN increasing its share of votes in places such as the Kg Keledek voting district, which has a total of 929 votes. In GE14, PAS won 59.8% of the area’s votes while BN took 33.9%, according to data from Ong.

“For the first time in the history of Kg Keledek, the BN will probably win it, thanks to support from PAS,” said a Pahang BN grassroots leader in charge of the campaign there.

But in the constituency’s nine Orang Asli settlements, which collectively provide 4,749 votes, the war for the hearts and minds seems to shift daily.

BN’s Fadzil Mohamad Kamal said the coalition is confident it can maintain its support level of 64.7% for Pos Sinderut but admitted that the fight is getting fiercer.

Fadzil said just before a scheduled visit by former prime minister Najib Razak on January 19, PH took all but three of Pos Sinderut’s tok batin (village chiefs) to Tanah Rata for a meeting.

“PH has been going into the remote villages aggressively. The Semai are asking why they are suddenly doing all this,” said Fadzil, who is Raub Umno Youth chief and a top leader in BN’s campaign in Pos Sinderut.

In Pos Betau, PH’s Azmi said for the first time, the coalition could increase its share of support.

“We don’t hope to win a majority in all the Malay and Orang Asli polling districts. We know that’s not possible as BN is strong here. We just hope to get an extra 700 to 1,000 votes to help push up the overall votes in Cameron Highlands.” – January 21, 2019.