UMNO is haemorrhaging badly. The trickle of lawmakers quitting the party could soon turn into a torrent, if the warning by Larut MP Hamzah Zainuddin is anything to go by.

Six Umno MPs in the peninsula left yesterday, another five from Sabah a day earlier, plus a number of state assemblymen. More threaten to leave if Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi remains at the top.

But the elephant in the room is – who benefits from the Umno implosion?

Dr Mahathir Mohamad, his party Bersatu or Anwar Ibrahim and his party PKR? Or even Amanah? Or the former Umno members themselves running from the prospect of possible criminal charges in the future?

The immediate reality or concern, or fear as it may be to some, is that these 11 MPs are up for grabs by either one of the three Malay-based parties in Pakatan Harapan (PH).

PKR has the most, 50 now. Bersatu has 16 and Amanah has 11. The one other reality is none of these Umno lawmakers will want or even be accepted by DAP.

Dr Mahathir might be interested to bolster Bersatu’s numbers in his limited time as the prime minister. He has even said that there are some good members in Umno.

The Larut MP who quit Umno yesterday said as much.

“There are 33 from Umno, one from Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah and two from MIC who signed (the letters of) support for the prime minister. This was not decided a day or two ago. It was decided about a month ago,” Hamzah was quoted as saying by Berita Harian.

“This group sincerely want to ensure that the government is stable and ensure that no one uses Parliament to dethrone the PM because we are hearing such.”

That support for Dr Mahathir now could play on Anwar’s fears that he may not have the numbers to become the next prime minister, as promised in the PH manifesto and within the pact’s presidential council.

After all, some parts of the PH manifesto has been discarded with the excuse that they did not actually think they would actually win the May 9 polls.

To Anwar’s advantage, and the reason the Zahid faction in Umno is talking to him through Barisan Nasional (BN) secretary-general Nazri Aziz is that Dr Mahathir has said Bersatu will not take 12 Umno MPs if they defected.

Those numbers could join PKR and DAP in an alliance to ensure Anwar does become prime minister, some 20 years after he was within a heartbeat of the post.

The sales pitch for Umno to ally itself with PKR and DAP has met resistance from the grassroots, but Nazri is unapologetic about the possible alliance.

“Anwar did not promise anything. He just said he’s not the prime minister yet. So we’ll have to go back and see him after he becomes PM. In the meantime, it is status quo and we’ll do our best not to get deregistered,” Nazri told The Malaysian Insight.

And how does all this benefit the other parties in PH? Are they even agreeable to this influx of Umno men and women who cheered Najib Razak before the general elections and now crawl over to their side of the political aisle?

Dr Mahathir says DAP’s Lim Kit Siang is open to the idea, having agreed that Umno has some good members.

“I myself was once an Umno member and Kit Siang has now accepted me. It’s not about membership but what we do,” the prime minister said yesterday.

But Lim has only gone as far to say that these ex-Umno members must first atone for supporting Najib.

Perhaps that will take a lifetime. After all, some of them are mired in scandals and face criminal prosecution for actions done in the BN years. The almost weekly parade of Umno politicians showing up for charges is still going on.

Yet, the immediate impact of the Umno bleeding is clear.

The federal lawmakers exiting Umno and preparing to join either Bersatu or PKR can and will tip the balance for Anwar’s accession as prime minister.

It won’t, however, decide if PH can attract more Malay support in the next polls. That is still a major contest for the hearts and minds of the demographic over the next five years. – December 15, 2018.