AFTER the unfamiliar experience of being on the losing side in a general election in May, followed by a trouncing in a by-election in August, Umno now has a real chance to reverse its fortunes in Rantau, Negri Sembilan.

With the current and past party presidents facing criminal charges and members defecting to parties in the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition, the fifth by-election since GE14 could be just the distraction, and potential boost, that a dispirited Umno needs.

Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan is why PH cannot expect to win Rantau with the same ease with which it took Sungai Kandis, Seri Setia, Balakong and Port Dickson.

Mohamad, 62, is a local boy who has held the state seat since 2004. He was also a popular menteri besar of three terms.

He recorded convincing wins in the three general elections before May 9, securing 79.3% of the vote in (2004), 63.3% (2008) and 63.8% (2013) of the votes.

Mohamad collected 8,031 votes against PKR’s Badrulhisham Shaharin in 2004, and a slightly reduced 7,739 votes against Aisah Lamsah in 2008.

Amid growing disenchantment with Barisan Nasional in 2013, Mohamad bucked the trend to extend his lead over Aisah to 10,126 votes.

Odds in Mohamad’s favour

Unlike the rest of the country, Rantau did not get to vote in the general election. Mohamad was handed a walkover when PKR’s Dr S. Streram was prevented from filing his nomination for election. Dr Streram subsquently took the case to court, which returned this week with the verdict to nullify the win.

Based on available data on voter support by ethnicity for PH, BN, and PAS, the three main political forces on the peninsula, Umno projects a win for Mohamad, albeit by a smaller margin.

Umno’s data analysis, backed up by Ilham Centre, estimates BN has 46.3% of the Malay vote, PAS (28.14%) and PH (25.47%).

Chinese support for BN is estimated at 2.4% and 92.67% for PH. Among Indian voters, 26% favour BN and 62%, PH.

According to the GE14 electoral roll, Rantau voters are 52% Malay, 19% Chinese, and 28% Indian.

Mohamad’s local appeal and popularity is factored in the calculations, where it is expected to account for a 10% jump above the national average number of votes.

The analysis offers projections in four voter turnout scenarios: 45.6% (the average turnout in the three by-elections preceding Port Dickson); 63% (Port Dickson); 82.3% (GE14); and 87% (Rantau GE13)

In all four scenarios, Mohamad triumphs – but with a slender margin of below 3%. 

Lack of non-Malay support for BN is expected to be offset by increased support from Malays, motivated by opposition to the government’s plan to ratify the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.

PH has 20 seats and BN, 15 seats, with Rantau up for grabs, in the Negri Sembilan state assembly. – November 18, 2018.