A CONFIDENT Rafizi Ramli made a bold statement just before the Sungai Bakap by-election that Malay support had dropped significantly for Perikatan Nasional in the state constituency.

He cited a PKR survey. However, the results showed otherwise.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin lost to Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Abidin Ismail by 4,267 votes in the polls with a voter turnout of 63.45%.

The PKR deputy president’s confidence had been buoyed by PH’s victories in five of the seven by-elections since the general election in 2022. He said that since the state elections last year, only 48% of Malays in Sungai Bakap supported PN, a significant drop from 77% just 10 months ago.

But Saturday’s polls showed that almost 80% of Malay voters favoured PN. And while the majority of Chinese votes went to PH, Indian votes grew for PN.

Hisommudin Bakar at Ilham Centre said Rafizi, who was the PH election director, was merely mouthing campaign propaganda. 

“Rafizi was not a neutral figure to talk about data when the campaign was ongoing. The results at the ballot box proved what he said was unfounded,” the pollster’s executive director said.

Hisommudin said PH’s defeat was due to both external and internal factors.

Hisommudin said PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) were still unable to work as one.

“It is obvious that each of them works in silos.  DAP also did not seem to be willing to work hard to win over the Chinese voters, who have been the determinants of PH’s victory all this while. The machinery was busy trying to win Malay votes but ignoring the discontent of its own supporters,” he said.

At the same time, Hisommudin said, Umno, PKR and Amanah had failed to win the persuade the Malay voters to cast their ballot for the unity government candidate.

“Umno is still struggling to convince their own supporters, not just the Malay voters as a whole. Meanwhile, Amanah’s role was nothing but disappointing. Its presence seemed to have no impact at all as it failed to rally Malay support for PH,” he said.

Sungai Bakap is the only state seat in the Nibong Tebal parliamentary constituency that is held by the opposition. PKR women chief Fadhlina Sidek, who is the education minister, is the Nibong Tebal MP, while two state constituencies of Jawi and Sungai Acheh are held by PH and BN, respectively.

Where were the youth and women wings?

Hisommudin said national issues greatly influenced voter sentiment in Sungai Bakap, further strengthening PN’s chances of victory in the seat.

“Throughout the campaign, the issues surrounding BlackRock investment, rationalisation of diesel subsidies, matriculation quotas, and of course, the cost of living and economic recovery influenced voters across race and party. PH’s explanations (for them all) seemed weak and ineffective in dispelling the sentiments brought on by the opposition. Every message they conveyed failed to capture the hearts of the voters despite PH putting up a credible candidate compared to the opponent,” he said.

Hisommudin said the youth and women wings of the government parties did not help in the campaign.

“There was no noticeable youth leadership that could drive up votes for the government bloc. The youth wings of DAP, Amanah, and PKR did not play the role they should. This caused the young Malays to remain with the opposition. This needs to be fixed immediately,” he said.

“The PH women wings, including the Wanita PKR chief, who is also the MP for the area, seems to have no ability to garner support for her own party candidate,” he added.

Such a lack of coordination could doom the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Hisommudin said.

Hisommudin said the government’s inter-party cooperation must be strengthened and made visible to voters.

“PH and BN must combine strengths to convince voters,” he said.

Hisommudin said the government must have an efficient media to disseminate information about national policies.

“The biggest challenge is Malay voters. There must be a strategic plan to win over this segment of voters in the time before the next federal polls.

“For non-Malay voters, economic recovery is their yardstick. The country’s achievements must be highlighted. Recovery takes time and that needs to be effectively communicated to this group,” he said. – July 9, 2024.