A LOW voter turnout for the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) state seat by-election tomorrow could spell disaster for the government coalition, analysts said.

They said fewer voters could favour opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional while non-Malay votes are crucial for a Pakatan Harapan (PH) win.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said PH would need a good turnout, especially among Chinese and Indian voters, to keep the seat.

“A low turnout would suggest that the Indian boycott has worked. Without their votes, PN would have the edge,” the political science assistant professor said.

“PH would have an advantage if non-Malay voters continue to vote for the coalition. However, if Indians were to cast protest votes against PH, it would help PN as it is assumed that it already has the majority Malay vote,” he added.

Tunku Mohar said a turnout below 65% would favour PN, while anything above 70% would help PH.

In the August state polls, DAP’s Lee Kee Hiong pipped Gerakan’s Henry Teoh Kien Hong by more than 4,000 votes to win the seat. Voter turnout was 69%.

Lee died on March 21 after a battle with cancer.

The by-election is a four-cornered fight among Pang Sock Tao (PH/DAP), Khairul Azhari Saut (PN/Bersatu), Hafizah Zainuddin (Parti Rakyat Malaysia) and Independent Nyau Ke Xin.

The KKB constituency has a mixed electorate of Malays (53.4)%, Chinese (30.5%), and Indians (15.82%). The remainder is made up of Orang Asli and others.

There are 40,226 registered voters in KKB. Young people in the 21-30 age group make up the biggest bloc of voters, at 9,400.

Tunku Mohar said recent trends suggest the voting will be ethnic-based.

“With the increase in the number of Malay voters in the constituency, PN is banking on Malay support to win.

“It has brought high-profile leaders to it campaign. It wouldn’t be a surprise if manages a win this time around. But this will depend on the voter turnout. A lower turnout will benefit PN,” he said, adding that the Chinese will remain loyal to PH.

Shifting Malay votes

Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections’ associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Malays could be more inclined to vote for PH this time.

He said several factors could have caused PN to lose Malay support.

“The announcement of support for the unity government from six Bersatu MPs, the government’s Hari Raya celebration in opposition states, the stability of the government, and the recent open apology from Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim could lead more Malays to vote for PH,” he said.

“The campaigns also didn’t look very interesting and there were less racial, religious and royalty issues played up by PN.”

Recently, Sanusi in the spirit of Raya had apologised to Anwar in Kedah.

University of Tasmania’s James Chin said PAS’ limited role so far in the by-election could very much influence the Malay vote.

“The PAS machinery does not seem to be working like it did in other elections.

“They are not as active as they used to be and this can very much influence the Malay votes. But there could be a last minute push from them,” he said.

Chin said the Chinese have already decided on their party.

“The Chinese want to keep DAP in power.

“This is largely because PN attacked its candidate’s vernacular education. That didn’t go down well with the Chinese voters even though PN tried to backtrack on the issue,” he said.

PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari had played up the fact that PH candidate Pang had attended a Chinese vernacular school.

The Pasir Mas lawmaker had challenged Pang to reveal her primary and secondary education background. – May 10, 2024.