USING the Central Database Hub (Padu) app as a means to deliver direct subsidies to the needy will not necessarily result in voter support for the ruling parties, said political analysts.

They believe that voters from the poorer category, especially from the Malay belt states, would remain loyal to their parties and need not necessarily switch loyalties just because the federal government is giving them more financial aid.

They added that these voters will accept what is offered to them but would not necessarily support or sway their votes to unity government parties.

“I view that the government is now gambling with luck,” said Hisomudin Bakar. 

“The federal government is hoping that this policy of using Padu will give results, that the people will appreciate this and they will give another term to the current government. 

“But I fear and worry that the opposite could also happen,” the Ilham Centre executive director told The Malaysian Insight.

Padu is a central depository for national household income and socioeconomic data.

Padu’s effective identification process is aimed to ensure subsidies reach the intended group, preventing misuse. 

As of March 31, about 17.65 million Malaysians aged 18 and above, comprising 58.7% of the country’s population, have updated their data on Padu. 

According to the statement issued by the Economic Ministry, Perlis had the highest registration percentage at 66.9%, followed by Kelantan (65.2%), Terengganu (62.7%) and Pahang (59.7%). 

Selangor, the most populous state, had the lowest registration with 44.5%, followed by Sarawak (46.7%) and Kuala Lumpur (47.6%). 

Hisomudin said that the government’s intention to ensure that only eligible Malaysians enjoy subsidies, prevent leakages and save funds may not be well understood and accepted by the people. 

He said this could happen if the government fails to explain well, if it is less convincing, and if the implementation is not smooth.

He said that it could be a “political disaster” for the government.

With Putrajaya pushing ahead with the implementation of Padu, the other matter that would concern Malaysians is the targeted petrol subsidy.

The removal of fuel subsidies may result in people facing challenges due to the immediate impact of the higher cost of living.

Hisomudin said that the financial impact would only be felt by the B40 and M40 groups. 

“Ignore the T20 for now because this group will not be significantly affected because they are capable. But the M40 group, especially civil servants, teachers, uniformed forces, the majority of whom are certainly Malays, are among the large groups that are affected,” he said. 

“The chain economic effect with floating fuel prices is also linked to commodity prices, inflation. In short, this approach is unpopular and risky. 

“As for the B40 group, if the attitude remains the same, they will take the aid and will continue to vote for the opposition. 

“This would result in a double-blow for the government in terms of politics, whereby the hope of obtaining B40 votes are dashed and they also will lose the M40 and T20 votes, who backed them in the previous elections. 

“This is not taking into account the opposition’s movement to take advantage from the ‘wave’ which may arise from the dissatisfaction,” he added. 

Communication weakness

Citing the local elections results in Turkiye, Hisomudin said that it was evident that the ruling party has lost its grip and its popularity to the opposition for failing to address issues concerning citizens.

He said the low value of the currency, the doubling of the price of goods, and inflation all contributed to the defeat of the ruling party in Turkiye. 

“The same may happen to the unity government. If the government’s strategic communication does not provide a scenario that is accepted by the majority of the people, I fear it will cause problems. 

“Just look at Padu’s failure, it is also caused by the government’s communication weakness in straightening out all the concerns and doubts of the people quickly and effectively. 

“Padu is also criticised by Gabungan Parti Sarawak and most recently by the Barisan Nasional representative, the Tanjung Piai lawmaker, who is a member of the current government.

“This is a bad development and shows that the secretariat of the unity government is not functioning well in coordinating information among their members,” he said. 

Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said the people’s party loyalty is not about to change although there are high registration rates for Padu in states like Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu.

“PAS has created a loyal support base that is committed to it by equating Islam with the party. 

“The supporters would not want to feel like they have betrayed Islam by supporting political parties other than PAS. 

“Hence, it is indeed tough to change the mindset (regardless of the aid, perks given),” the political science lecturer said. – April 10, 2024.