THE trans-boundary smog Malaysia is experiencing could worsen from December to March in Sabah and Sarawak despite rain at the onset of the monsoon, one of the country’s foremost climate experts warned. 

Fredolin Tangang, a fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, told The Malaysian Insight the severity of the situation would depend on whether the El Nino phenomenon could be classified as “strong”. 

He said El Nino – a climate phenomenon characterised by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean – is currently “active, strengthening, and could be either in moderate or strong category”. 

This warming of ocean waters would disrupt normal atmospheric circulation patterns and could have widespread impact on global climate. El Niño tended to bring drier-than-average conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. 

Tangang, a former professor of climatology and physical oceanography at the Faculty of Science and Technology in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) said if the weather followed the evolution or progression of a typical El Nino event, Malaysia and Indonesia would continue to feel its impact until April or May next year. 

He said based on research by his group at UKM from September to November last year, Sumatra and Kalimantan would experience an “anomalous drier condition” during El Nino. 

“This dry condition could trigger forest fires and trans-boundary smog,” Tangang said. 

“The trans-boundary smog can be worse if it happens during the south-west monsoon because the prevailing wind will blow from the south, bringing the smoke to Malaysia.” 

Malaysia entered the inter-monsoon period in mid-September.

Tangang said during this period, the wind would blow in variable directions. 

“Typically, we have thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, especially in peninsular Malaysia.” 

He said if the wind blowing from the south – from Sumatra and Kalimantan – is weak, it might lessen the likelihood of really bad trans-boundary smog. 

“However, weather can be difficult to predict; the wind can still be still blowing from the south even though we are already in the inter-monsoon period, and the smoke can still affect us,” Tangang said when asked if people in Sarawak and Sabah should be concerned that the air quality could get worse. 

On top of that, if there was a typhoon in the Philippines and South China Sea in the next few weeks, it would cause air masses to flow north to Malaysia from Sumatra and Kalimantan, and this could increase the likelihood of trans-boundary smog, he said. 

He added that in November, the likelihood of trans-boundary smog from Sumatra and Kalimantan would diminish as these areas would get plenty of rainfall and the wind would blow in the opposite direction, from north to south. 

Tangang, however, warned that Sabah and northern Sarawak from December to March next year would “typically get much drier conditions during an El Nino event”. 

“If we have smog, it would be (from) local sources. We have large areas of peat soil in Sabah and northern Sarawak,” he said. 

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) Haze Outlook 2023 report warned of the high risk of severe smog affecting Southeast Asia until March or April next year. 

SIIA stated that its rating was driven primarily by prediction of a strong El Niño event. 

Tangang said nothing much could be done to tackle the smog problem. 

“Hopefully authorities in Indonesia can carry out stricter enforcement to avoid open burning and forest fires. Likewise, we have to do the same in the country. 

“Enforce and restrict open burning,” Tangang added. – October 1, 2023.