POLITICAL analysts agree that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will most likely sit out the coming Jepak by-election in Sarawak.

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi, Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Jayum Jawan, and University of Tasmania’s James Chin gave two reasons for this.

The first is that PH has no hope of winning the Malay-Melanau majority seat in Bintulu that Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the lead party of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), has held since the seat’s creation in 1996.

DAP had tried to take it in the 2001 and 2006 Sarawak elections while PKR attempted the same in 2011 and 2016 before PH skipped it altogether in the 2021 state election.

The second reason is that PH would risk angering GPS, particularly PBB.

In the rather complicated Malaysian political landscape, GPS supports the PH-led federal unity government and their numbers in parliament are helping to keep Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in power.

At state level, the three parties of PH that have branches in Sarawak – PKR, DAP, and Amanah – are in the opposition.

The two PH assemblymen in the 82-state legislative assembly are DAP state chairman Chong Chieng Jen (Padungan) and Lily Yong (Pending).

“It’s not worth their while. They (PH assemblymen) have more to lose than to win,” Awang Azman told The Malaysian Insight.

He said he is certain PH will be sensible and give way. 

“They will try to avoid contesting. Even if they were to contest, they will not win,” Awang Azman said, describing Jepak, which had 14,643 registered voters in the 2021 election, as one of PBB-GPS’s “super strongholds”.

He said it would be best for PH to just let smaller parties like the pro-independence Parti Bumi Kenyalang, Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak, and Independents have their day.

He said PH must remember it needs all the support it can get for the unity government and must show sincerity in cooperating with allies. 

“This is crucial in relations between Anwar and Abang Jo,” he said, alluding to Sarawak Premier and GPS chairman Abang Johari Openg.

Jawan, a UPM political science professor, said he does not believe PH and PKR will want to risk angering GPS, especially PBB.  

“They will skip Jepak to show good faith and would want to convey that to PBB and GPS. The risk is too high.” 

Jawan said contesting the seat could result in the downfall of the unity government. 

He said PH should not doubt that GPS and PBB could “deliver that shock” should Anwar be brave enough to try. 

 
Chin, however, said if PH does field a candidate, that to him was “a signal they can take on GPS in the next state election”. 

The Asian governance expert said PH needed to calculate carefully before taking that path. 

“They have to take into consideration the fact that Anwar was significantly weakened by the recent six state elections in the peninsula.” 

Even though Sarawak PKR has the autonomy to decide whether to contest and pick the candidate, Chin believes those decisions would be made by central PKR leadership. 

“(They have to decide) whether it’s worth flying their flag and pissing off Abang Jo and the rest.” 

Chin said it would be best if PH stayed out and tried to strike a deal with GPS in the next state election. 

“Be nice now for GPS to offer them something in the future.” 

The Jepak seat fell vacant when its incumbent, Talib Zulpilip, who had represented the seat for six terms, died on September 15. 

The Election Commission will decide the by-election date on Monday. – September 24, 2023.