INDEPENDENT pollster Merdeka Center (MC) has projected the status quo for the outcome of the six state elections that will be held tomorrow. 

It said Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will remain in the hands of Perikatan Nasional (PN) while Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan will continue to be held by Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN). 

“PN will make further inroads in Malay constituencies in Kedah and BN incumbent seats in Kelantan and Terengganu. 

“PN may also make small gains in a handful of seats in Negri Sembilan but will not threaten the position of the PH/BN state government,” it said in a statement. 

Earlier another pollster, Ilham Centre, also predicted that tomorrow state elections could possibly result in PH-BN and PN remaining in power in their respective states.

According to the survey, seats with between 70% to 90% Malay representation in Selangor and Penang are heavily contested and are currently considered ‘too-close-to-call’. 

“Yet both state governments will remain firmly with PH/BN.”

The pollster said that from the surveys that it had implemented, the two main coalitions, PH/BN and PN in parts of Penang and Selangor as well as the mixed ethnic areas of Kedah still needed to swing undecided voters to their side as well as persuade their core voters to turn up to vote.  

“Younger Malay voters in these surveys also continued to display strong preference for PN as was the case in the November 2022 general election. 

“Non-Malay voters remained firmly in support of PH but questions abound on their turnout rate.”

They also said that questions about out-of-town Malay voters to Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu may become academic as PN enjoys significant majority support that reduces their dependence on out-of-state voters to make the trek home to vote. 

In the survey, Merdeka Center also asked voters of their preferred choice of coalition to lead their respective state governments.

“The results here were split between states in which it spoke to respondents from all ethnic groups and those where it only interviewed Malay respondents.”

In Selangor,  36% chose PN, followed by 49% for PH/BN and 15% undecided.

In Negri Sembilan, 18% chose PN, 59% opted for PH and 22% were undecided. 

In cases where the respondents were all Malays, the majority preferred PN in Kedah (66%), Kelantan (50%) and Terengganu (57%). Malay respondents in Penang (49%) and Selangor (46%) all opted for PN compared to PH/BN and being undecided.

Only in Negri Sembilan, the Malay respondents picked PH/BN over PN.

Merdeka Center said that as it expected, voters across all six states expressed strong concerns about inflation and economic growth, with more than 55% reporting interest in various topics.

“It noted some intra-state differences – 9% and nearly 5% of voters in Kelantan and Kedah respectively expressed concern on water supply management issues.”

This survey was part of an exercise carried out in various stages among a total of 6,179 respondents comprising a representative sample of Malaysian voters aged 18 and above voting in the six states. These respondents were interviewed in July and August. –  August 11, 2023.