WE were led to believe this would be a temporary marriage of the utmost convenience and strictly born out of the desperation for unity and stability.  

However, this Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance has increasingly harmonised itself and looks set to stay permanent if deemed popular enough.  

I once deduced that the main reason BN was willing to cooperate was for them to temporarily seek refuge under PH to regain their political prowess.  

By continuing to possess the levers of power - even if it means cooperating with PH - Umno believes that they would emerge as a much stronger political party with the aim of winning an outright majority.  

While many would believe the alliance initially was a quid pro quo between Anwar Ibrahim and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, it is only valid to the extent that it should be temporary and Umno must be ready to cut loose when the time is ripe to win an election with a healthy majority. 

It is now increasingly clear that this idea of reviving BN to its glory days by siding with PH momentarily is not what Zahid had in mind.  

He has considered that this unity experiment could last well beyond the next general election. 

This would effectively mean that BN and Umno would be contesting in the next general election by striking alliances with PH and would most likely be playing a supplementary role again to prop up a PH government.  

Gone are the days when Malaysia would be dominated by BN, where UMNO would rule with an iron fist – the country is moving into what many believe to be a multi-party democracy. 

Nevertheless, the union between PH and Umno looks more like the recreation of the tried and tested BN consociational model.  

The consociational model is the modus operandi for BN and has proven to be successful in helping it secure power since its formation in 1973.  

Basically, one of the basic tenets of consociationalism is a grand coalition government that mandates participation of political leaders from all segments of society.  

Since the greatest divisions have been on ethnic lines, Malaysia’s very own consociational model would be formulated along racial lines.  

This formula proved to be successful for Umno, MCA, and MIC to secure political power.  

The consociational rule under BN has provided Malaysia political stability only possible under BN’s authoritarian rule.  

At least until 2008, there was no fear BN would be thrown out of power as they still had an ultra-majority in parliament. 

It is still too early to tell whether there would be a consociationalism 2.0, but this unity government did deliver its stability promise similar to BN at its political peak.  

The inclusion of Umno in a PH-led government is to assuage the Malays and act as the defender of Malays and Islam in this government.  

This is in fact already happening where Umno has promised to bring up the issue of Kalimah Allah to the cabinet.  

Likewise, DAP ministers are expected to be the minority’s de facto spokesperson in cabinet.  

You could say out of all the major political parties supporting this unity government, the one that clearly does not fit into the equation is PKR where some would argue it is the antithesis political party of the consociational model.  

Anwar is the only politician that can manage this ragtag coalition and therefore remains an indispensable part of this consociational model.  

However, PKR will soon face the day when Anwar is no longer president and if Zahid’s words come true, PKR might be playing second fiddle to a union between DAP and Umno, which are more electorally compatible.   

The BN model has severely weakened since it lost its two-thirds majority in parliament in 2008 and it remains to be seen whether it could be revitalised under a different brand. 

If Umno did not play its part in a consociational model and deliver the Malay votes for the unity government in the coming state elections, this PH-Umno consociational model would most likely share the same fate as its predecessor. – May 21, 2023.

* Kenneth Cheng has always been interested in the interplay between human rights and government but more importantly he is a father of two cats, Tangyuan and Toufu. When he is not attending to his feline matters, he is most likely reading books about politics and human rights or playing video games. He is a firm believer in the dictum “power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.