Analysts predict lower voter turnout at GE14

Yeoh Cheong Ee Yeoh Cheong Ee Updated 8 years ago · Published on 21 Mar 2018 7:00AM · 11 Comments

Voters lining up in the prime minister’s constituency of Pekan in GE13 in 2013. The last elections created history with an 85% turnout. – EPA pic, March 21, 2018.

POLITICAL analysts predict a lower voter turnout at the 14th general election compared with 2013, despite the Election Commission’s target of repeating the last election’s historic high of 85%.

They cited political fatigue, especially among outstation and youth voters, as the main reason. There were 14.97 million registered voters as of the last quarter of 2017.

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research manager Tan Seng Keat said voter turnout would be within the range of 75% to 78%.

This would still be higher than 72.2% in 2008, the year now marked as a watershed election when Barisan National lost its super majority in Parliament and control of four additional states.

Apart from national sentiments, local politics and parties’ mobilisation power would also influence the voter turnout, said Tan.

“A more accurate prediction is only possible after political parties go into full election mode. Johor is likely to have a higher voter turnout due to the contest between MCA and DAP’s heavyweights in Ayer Hitam and other focus areas (in the state),” said Tan.

Southern University College General Studies Centre director Dr Phoon Wing Keong agreed that the big fights in Johor could help boost voter turnout in the state.

He said Chinese voters, who tend to be pro-opposition, would be inspired to vote if they sensed a Malay tsunami coming.

“The fight between DAP’s Liew Chin Tong and MCA deputy president Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam, a Malay-majority seat, would generate excitement and attract them to vote,” said Phoon.

In Kelantan, PAS will need to mobilise outstation voters to return and keep the Islamist party in power.

“Usually the locals tend to vote for BN, while the outstation voters will vote for PAS,” said Merdeka Centre’s Tan.

In Terengganu, internal sabotage among Umno factions contributed to a disproportionately high rate of spoiled votes in certain constituencies in the last elections.

Swing and outstation voters

Tan added that the federal opposition should remember its failure to mobilise swing voters in 2004, contributed to its humiliating defeat.

BN, led by then newly minted prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, had a resounding victory by winning 198 (90%) of the 222 federal seats in 2004, with 64% of the popular vote.

“BN has more resources as the incumbent. They will hire motorcycles and buses to ferry the voters during elections, especially elderly voters who tend to be pro-BN,” said Tan.

The scenario changed in 2008 and 2013 when Pakatan Rakyat (PR) successfully capitalised on anti-BN sentiments and persuaded swing voters to come out in droves to vote for them.

In 2008, PR won five states and denied BN a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat by winning 82 seats. The now defunct coalition improved its result in 2013 by winning the popular vote and 89 federal seats. 

Tan said the opposition must convince these swing voters to vote for them again in GE14.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Pakatan Harapan (PH) must resolve its seat negotiations in Malay-majority seats to win over the confidence of swing voters in rural areas.

“Urban voter turnout is already at its peak, unless rural voter turnout increases, the overall voter turnout will not change,” he said.

He said the voter turnout rate would decline to about 75% unless the opposition can successfully mobilise youth voters aged between 21 and 39.

“A lot of the youth are outstation voters. If they can be inspired, persuaded to ‘balik kampung’ to vote, it will help raise voter turnout.”

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political lecturer Liew Wui Chern predicted a 70% turnout, blaming news of infighting in the opposition as the cause of political fatigue among voters.

He said PH could help generate voters’ interest and inspire confidence by announcing its shadow cabinet.

“There have been calls for them to announce their shadow cabinet even before the launch of their manifesto,” said Liew. – March 21, 2018.

Sign up or sign in here to comment.

Comments

  • A lower turnout is not hard to predict. The Research Manager says it’s voter fatigue. I say it’s because neither party is worth voting for. The only votes that Harapan will secure are the few who are so obsessed with their own righteous delusions that they would vote for that Sino-Mahathir abomination, PH. The rest will choose the least awful of two appallingly awful options

    Posted 8 years ago by Dennis Madden · Reply

    • Absolutely agree. For such an important election, one that will probably seal the fate of malaysians for the next one or two generation, the lack of energy is conspicuous. Except for their die hard supporters, everybody else think that neither party is not worth voting for. If people have to drive or queue to vote or take an off day to vote, i think they will just not bother to vote at all. The opposition i think will suffer more from the voter fatigue, because many of the people who will not bother to vote, would have voted for the opposition had they casted their vote .

      Posted 8 years ago by Nehru Sathiamoorthy · Reply

    • Both your comments remind me of the combi of Laural and Hardy or the dumb and dumber freak comments.

      Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • And as we have come to expect, all the Lee Lee’s can do is criticise. Where is the intelligent comment from the more righteous, more intelligent sector of Malaysian society?

      Posted 8 years ago by Dennis Madden · Reply

    • Do both of you deserve any intelligent response when all you two buffons did is using strategies of a low tier in the subtle political criticism to paint the opposition being in dilema and inbetween show case of only goodness of UmnoBN will save Malaysia. Good try but not good enough.

      Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • As a matter of fact, I think they do deserve an intelligent response. Avoid the name-calling and do refute their points (do not just describe them negatively).

      Posted 8 years ago by Low Low · Reply

    • Go ahead. You are welcome to do it. I have given up on those who are lop sided and only put down the opposition party without any solutions except for their "I love UmnoBN". They have to show that they fully deserve to have a bantering with intellectual discourse or else the names fit.

      Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • Pardon me, but who is lop-sided? I would suggest to you that the lop-sided are those who would stoop to any level of degradation simply to justify their own delusions about themselves. Some people are so useless that they have achieved nothing in 60 years of politics and now they have sunk so low as to enlist Mahathir and pseudo PAS to achieve what they are incapable of doing themselves. Are you so besotted by your own self importance that you never think about or question anything because you think you are right all the time

      Posted 8 years ago by Dennis Madden · Reply

    • I am actually ok with their comments. I think their comments were fair, but your reply was not. The mischaracterisation was so off-putting that I had to register an account just to respond. Mr Dennis and Mr Nehru were critical of both sides but you could not see it somehow. I could not believe that that was the level of political discourse in this country. I empathized with your feeling of hopelessness. Your "Laural and Hardy" comment actually sent me to Google. You are probably not so young and have kids of your own? For their sake, don't give up. Our politics may be going off a cliff, but there are other little things that we as private citizens may do to contribute to this country. Perhaps you are already doing some. There are many quiet heroes around.

      Posted 8 years ago by Low Low · Reply

  • The country's future in the voters hand, why are they not interested in their future, their children future and their grandchildren future??? If they do nothing, nothing will change.

    Posted 8 years ago by Yong Yeok Fong · Reply

    • Has it ever occurred to you that the Malays ARE thinking about the future and they are doing the best they can to ensure the future of this country. But what can they do when all the choices they are given are Awful Government and Truly Awful Government. The Malays know from first hand experience what a Sino Mahathirist Islam obsesseD collection of has-beens and failures will do for this country. They only have to look at Islamic counties and China to know that they are better off to choose BN

      Posted 8 years ago by Dennis Madden · Reply