MIC believes that the next elections will mark its return as a political power but to understand how tough a task that is just look at the challenge party president Dr S. Subramaniam is facing in Segamat. ‎

In 2013, the health minister’s margin of victory in the parliamentary constituency in Johor was 1,217 votes. 

But in recent months, The Malaysian Insight has learnt that several studies by Umno and other political parties have put Segamat in the black category, meaning the ruling coalition could face an uphill task  retaining the seat.

Generally, seats are classified as “black” to take into account influx of first-time and younger voters, a tepid political machinery on the ground and a strong opposition presence.

Also, a national survey done in March suggests that the party’s pull among Indians has hovered around the same level from four years ago, just under 30%.

Still, the MIC is confident of a turnaround of its political fortunes. The party said it aims to contest and win seven parliamentary and 13 state seats.

It believes that the Malaysian Indian Blueprint will be a game changer and a vote-getter. Under the scheme announced by Prime Minister Najib Razak recently, the government has promised the community a slew of goodies.

This includes making sure that Indians comprise 7% of the civil service by 2026, increase the enrolment of Indian students in local higher learning institutions and setting aside RM500 million for a unit trust scheme for poor Indians.

Political analyst Dr P. Sivamurugan said the blueprint could attract some Indians back to BN.

“The blueprint and the assistance from the PM directly to the Indian community may add value to the voting pattern among Indians,” said Sivamurugan from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

But he, too, said MIC’s performance in the polls will ultimately depend also on its candidates, the party machinery on the ground and its ability to tackle issues facing voters in a constituency.

‎The other factors that could impact on MIC’s performance in GE14 is the decision by Hindraf to field candidates and possibly split the Indian vote further and the decision by Umno to work more closely with PAS.

Perhaps the toughest obstacle to overcome is the growing sentiment among voters that MIC is not the only political party that can look after Indians.‎

PKR vice-president Dr Xavier Jeyakumar said there are more Indian elected representatives among the opposition parties than there are from MIC or the other BN component parties.

In the Dewan Rakyat, the Pakatan Harapan parties DAP, PKR and its ally, Parti Sosialis Malaysia, have 10 Indian MPs. BN only has three, all of whom are from the MIC.

Shifting trends

In Hulu Selangor and Segamat, the Indian shift is on display.

Contract worker K. Murugan from Hulu Selangor used to vote for MIC but he and the people he knows have all shifted their support in 2013.

“Most of the time they give us a bag of rice during the election period, we don’t need that. What we need is more jobs and they should look into bringing more business opportunities here so that locals can have jobs.

“I used to vote for MIC, but in the last elections, I voted for the opposition,” said the 55-year-old, adding that most Indians in the area have shifted their allegiance to PKR.‎

In 2013, MIC’s P. Kamalanathan retained the seat by 3,414, votes, mostly with the support of Malays who make up 56% of the constituency’s more than 85,000 voters. 

In Segamat, the move by the government to build an army camp may not help Subramaniam, said Johor PKR chief Hasan Karim, who believes that the momentum on the ground in the state favours the opposition.

The conventional thinking has been that army and police personnel usually vote for BN but the voting pattern from 2013 suggest that army vote is not a slam dunk for the ruling coalition.

Fortresses lost 

It is speculated that the MIC is aiming to take back the parliamentary seats it lost to the opposition in 2013, such as Sg Siput, Kapar, Kota Raja and Subang.

Regaining Sg Siput in Perak, which was lost by 2,793 votes, looks attainable.

But areas in Selangor, such as Kapar, Kota Raja and Subang, have become PH strongholds, with winning majorities of between 23,000 and 29,000 votes.‎ To even cause a dent in those imposing majorities, MIC will have to win over voters like P. Segaran.‎

‎The retired factory worker from Shah Alam said the Selangor government has done more for Indians than MIC.

“They have provided free bus fare for Indians students and they have also given out small projects to Indian business owners.‎

“We don’t need an Indian party, what we need is a multiracial party that can take care of all the people,” he said.‎ – May 31, 2017.