NEWLY formed political parties are not going to be “game changers” if they fly solo in the 15th general election (GE15), political analysts said.

Besides the few well-known personalities who stand a chance to win some seats, observers said the newly formed parties would need to be part of an existing formidable coalition to gain traction in next general election.

Some of the new parties that are likely to make their election debut are Muda, Pejuang, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Parti Warisan Sabah and Parti Kuasa Rakyat (Kuasa).

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said the Malaysian political arena is already congested with big players such as Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional.

He said the new parties may find it difficult to perform well – in the sense of winning seats – as big parties already have a huge presence in most areas.

“They may stand a chance if the personality is really well-liked in a particular constituency,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“Furthermore, without policies or programmes that can appeal to the masses and without alignment with the current big coalitions, it would be difficult for these new parties to gain traction in the next general election.”

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun also concurred with Tunku Mohar, saying each party may manage to win a “handful” of seats, mainly through their prominent senior political figures.

He said that the new parties may not have the track record as opposed to the bigger parties.

“I think each may win at most a handful of seats on their own, primarily those contested by their senior party leaders, such as their presidents,” Oh said.

“Beyond that, it would be difficult for them to make inroads in seats traditionally held by major political parties from either side of the political divide, as they (new parties) simply do not have the political track record,” he said.

Oh said these new political parties may stand a better chance if they become part of the existing coalitions.

Meanwhile, University of Tasmania’s Asian political expert, James Chin, said none of the new parties possesses a very strong political branding out there, except Muda.

Despite Muda’s branding, which is mostly done through social media, Chin said it would not be enough to topple the main political parties.

He said the new parties would have to count on the support of the strong, existing coalitions.

“None of them has a very strong brand. Muda has the strongest brand among the others but even then, it is mostly done through social media.

“I suspect even Muda’s branding is not as strong as the other (main) parties.

“All these parties would have to rely on the bigger coalition to help them with the branding,” he said.

Muda recently said that it may work with PH for the next general election, just as the youth-based party did in the Johor polls.

Kuasa recently announced that it will be willing to work with PBM in the next general election.

Kuasa president Kamarazaman Yaakob said the party was interested in merging with PBM to become one party. However, the matter would be decided at the PBM annual general meeting on October 1.

Kamarazaman is the brother of Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who said Kuasa is BN-friendly.

Even PBM has recently stated its interest to be part of BN. However, there is no outcome as yet on the decision.

Can the newbies split the votes?

Tunku Mohar said the presence of these new parties could indeed split the votes but he said the impact may differ.

He said that either side of the political divide could gain from the presence of new parties in the next general election.

“In Malay-majority constituencies, it may benefit Umno, assuming that Umno grassroots do not change their allegiance.

“In mixed constituencies, it may harm Umno’s chances, assuming PH’s voters do not switch allegiance,” he said.

Chin believes there would not be a major split in votes, insisting the new parties lack strong branding.

He said the new parties may not be able to attract a “big bloc” of voters.

“They will be collecting small votes here and there. So, they will not make a big difference overall,” he said.

Chin added that people should not be excited about the presence of new political parties ahead of the general election, as it will not change voting patterns.

He cited the Johor elections as an example.

“Before Johor, people were saying that Muda was going to capture the youth votes.

“If you do a statistical analysis of the Johor elections, the majority of the young people voted just like the general population. Muda did not capture many votes,” he said.

In the Johor polls, Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s Muda cooperated with an Anwar Ibrahim-led PH. However, they both clashed in the six-cornered Larkin state seat.

With the cooperation, Muda won one out of the seven state seats it contested. They won the Puteri Wangsa seat, contested by its deputy president Amira Aisya Abd Aziz. – September 22, 2022.