EVEN though PAS did not win any of the seats it contested in the Malacca polls, the Islamist party received more votes in seven of the eight constituencies where it had fielded a candidate.

Analysts said this shows the party does better when it is part of a coalition, compared to when it stands alone as it did in the 2018 general election.

In the Malacca polls, PAS was in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition with Bersatu and Gerakan. Its candidates stood under the PN logo. In 2018, it played the role of vote-splitter, causing three-cornered fights where Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) were up against one another.

Azizuddin Sani, a political lecturer at Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), said PAS has benefitted from standing with Bersatu.

“In the Malay-majority seat of Serkam (where PAS fielded a candidate for PN), PN almost won, which means there is support for PN. This is not because of PAS’ strength but Bersatu’s.

“Some Malays who did not support PH or BN supported PN, maybe because of the abah factor,” he said, referring to former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who leads PN and Bersatu.

Muhyddin is popular for the cash aid he doled out to the lower-income and rural voters when he was in office.

The PAS candidate in the Serkam seat, Ahmad Bilal Rahudin, lost to BN’s Zaidi Atman by a margin of just 79 votes, and increased the party’s share of the votes to 45%.

In the 2018 polls, Zaidi won by a a margin of 2,737 votes over Ahmad. Zaidi had conceded 21% of the vote in this election. He received 5,038 votes compared to 6,401 in 2018.

Aizuddin said PN could have won Serkam if there had been a higher voter turnout.

Overall turnout in the state election was 65.85%, when it had been above 80% in GE14.

In Serkam, the turnout was 72.8% while in 2018, it was 85.6%.

“If you look at that, PN could have increased its share of votes, although winning additional seats is uncertain, but Serkam was quite possible,” said Aizuddin.

Serkam has 90% Malay voters and is among the 13 state constituencies where the Malay majority is over 70%. 

Fewer problems for PAS in PN

The Islamist party increased its votes in all the seats it fought for except Duyong.

The Duyong candidate here, PAS state commissioner Kamarudin Sedik, who also stood in the seat in GE14, lost only 2% of the vote he received in the last polls

BN snatched up Duyong via Mohd Noor Helmy to whom PH candidate Damian Baba Yeo lost 41% of the vote, from 7,642 in GE14 to only 4,484 on Saturday.

Apart from Serkam and Duyong, PAS contested in Kuala Linggi, Taboh Naning, Durian Tunggal, Kelebang, Bukit Katil, and Merlimau.

While BN won the elections with a two-thirds majority, Azizuddin said PAS benefits from allying with PN than with Umno in Muafakat Nasional (MN).

Even though Umno is a stronger party, Umno and PAS have many unresolved issues, especially with Umno insisting on dominance, Aizuddin said.

“Many issues need to be resolved if PAS is with BN. If they (PAS and Umno) collaborated, there will be difficulties dividing the seats.

“If they are to cooperate, can they, for example, compromise for a joint government in Kelantan and Terengganu?” Azizuddin said, referring to the two states that PAS controls and is able to stand alone.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political lecturer Dr Mazlan Ali believes Umno will continue to sideline PAS after BN’s big win in Malacca.

In public, Umno leaders have said it will leave the door open to PAS and that it is up to the Islamist party to choose between Umno and Bersatu.

“If Umno makes a pact with PAS, it will be difficult for the party to control Terengganu, Kelantan and the northern states. Umno’s solo decision is correct. This strategy to go solo may remain (until the next general election),” Mazlan said.

With Bersatu, PAS is also able to attract Malay voters who do not support Umno or PH, Mazlan added.

“PAS’ influence is not strong in Malacca but with Bersatu they became stronger, like a ‘third force’,” he said.

With Bersatu and PAS both being weaker parties compared to Umno, their collaboration can put up a challenge to BN in the general election.

But, Mazlan cautioned, the Malacca polls cannot be taken as an indicator for the 15th general election, as voting patterns are subject to change once Undi18 is implemented. This will add around 8 million young voters to the electoral roll. – November 23, 2021.