POLITICAL parties will have a hard time rallying voters to come out and cast their votes in the Malacca state election, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said.

The pollster said this was because there is a lack of excitement among the voters who have had to live through multiple lockdowns stemming from the Covid-19 public health crisis.

To make matters worse, the prolonged political crisis at the federal level which saw the fall of Pakatan Harapan after 22 months and Muhyiddin Yassin’s tenure cut short after 17 months have made people tired of politics.

“The main challenge for all the political parties contesting in the Malacca state polls is creating excitement among the voters to make sure they will come out and cast their votes,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight.

“Looking at the current trend, with Covid-19 and the prolonged political crisis at the forefront, the people are fed up and this may lead to a drop in the percentage of voters who turn up on polling day.”

According to data from the pollster, the biggest segment of voters in the state are the Chinese, outstation voters and youths.

In the 14th general election, 84% of the population in the state came out to vote.

This the group that led Pakatan to victory, he said.

“The decline in voter turnout will affect all parties and therefore it is hard to say who stands a good chance in Malacca.

“However, if the three groups mentioned above don’t come out to vote, there is a likelihood that Barisan Nasional may emerge victorious,” Hisommudin said.

On October 6, four Malacca assemblymen announced they had lost confidence in Chief Minister Sulaiman Md Ali and withdrew support for him.

The four are former chief minister Idris Haron (Sg Udang), Nor Azman Hassan (Pantai Kundor), Noor Effandi Ahmad (Telok Mas) and Norhizam Hassan Baktee (Pengkalan Batu).

The move means Sulaiman is now backed by 12 assemblymen (one from Bersatu, the rest from Barisan Nasional), while there are 15 opposition reps (11 from Pakatan Harapan, two from BN, one from Bersatu and one independent). The legislative assembly has 28 seats.

Malacca Governor Mohd Ali Mohd Rustam subsequently dissolved the state assembly  following Sulaiman’s advice, paving the way for state elections to be held in the next 60 days.

Critics, however, are calling for an emergency for fear that the polls will cause another Covid-19 outbreak, like what happened during the Sabah state elections last year.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said Putrajaya is waiting to hear Deputy Yang Di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah’s views before deciding whether to propose an emergency in Malacca to pause impending polls.

Besides the lack of excitement on the ground, Hisommudin said that since the last general election in 2018, there has been a drastic change in the voter demographic in Malacca.

“There is no clear demarcation between the interior, sub-urban and urban areas in the state as they are all close to each other.

“Urbanisation has also rapidly altered this demographic significantly. This means the speed in which information reaches these areas is now much quicker.

“The long and short of it is if there is a three-cornered fight, this will give an advantage to Pakatan. However, if the Malay parties unite, BN and Perikatan Nasional will have a better chance of leading the state.”

As it stands now, Hisomuddin said there are 12 legislative assemblies where the voters are Malay-majority.

Of the 18 seats that Umno won last election, the Malays represent 70% of the voters in 12 seats, he said.

Another 11 seats comprise between 51% and 69% Malay voters. The remaining five are non-Malay majority areas.

“Based on the results of GE14, BN only lost one seat in a Malay-majority area – Telus Mas to PKR.

“In mixed majority areas and Chinese-dominated areas, they are skewed towards Pakatan. BN only won two seats in this area out of 11.

“In predominantly Chinese areas, DAP’s hold is incomparable to MCA or Gerakan.”

In terms of popular votes, Pakatan won more votes compared to PAS and BN at the last election. It garnered 51% or 213,993 of the votes out of a total of 417,884 votes cast.

“BN came in second with 38% (158,729) while the remaining 11% went to PAS which  garnered 45,162 votes.”

“Marginal seats – seats won by a majority of less than 1,000 votes according to Ilham – make up nine out of the 28.

“Out of the nine, three are in Pakatan’s constituencies while six belong to BN.” – October 11, 2021.