PAKATAN Harapan can take Johor if the opposition coalition has only Barisan Nasional to beat in the next general election, said Politweet.

The results of the study “Winning Odds for Pakatan Harapan in Johor (GE14)”, which were released today, showed that PH must target more than a 10-point swing to win the southern state.

This means PH must take 36 of the total 59 state seats in Barisan Nasional-controlled Johor, the social media research outfit said

Johor PH led by Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, a former menteri besar of the state, also needs to win over pro-BN supporters to neutralise the PAS effect.

PAS, which is now in a third bloc, is expected to contest Malay seats and create three-cornered fights in the process.

Analysts have said that three-cornered fights between BN, PH and PAS are likely to benefit BN.

“The only way for PH to overcome this is by getting the component parties to win over pro-BN supporters.

“For example, if PAS takes 10% of the anti-BN vote, Bersatu will have to counter that by taking 10% of the pro-BN vote. If PH can do this, it can achieve a 10-point swing,” Politweet said.

Malay vote hard to swing

Politweet said it would be challenging to persuade Malay voters to switch from BN to PH.

“From our observations of Johor in 2015, young Malays aged 21 to 30 are more likely to support Umno compared to their peers in other states.“

As of the first quarter of last year, Johor has 1.77 million voters,  235,733 of them new.

Malay Muslims make up the majority of voters at 54.85%, followed by 37.75% Chinese, and 6.36% Indian. The rest are Bumiputera from Sabah and Sarawak and other races.

Of the new voters, 64% are Malay Muslim, 29.21% Chinese and 4.9% Indian.

Umno most popular on Facebook

Politweet also tested how Facebook users viewed Umno, PAS, PKR and DAP in the first month of the year. It measured the interest of Facebook users aged 21 and above in political parties in Johor, taking into account likes, posts, shares and other activities on the social media platform.

Umno was found to be dominating conversations and page likes while PAS had little influence in Johor.

Politweet found 61% Facebook users were exclusively interested in Umno;  22% in Umno and PKR; 5% in Umno, PKR and PAS; and 2% in Umno and PAS. 

Only 8% were exclusively interested in PKR and 2% in PAS.

As Facebook did not compile statistics for new parties Bersatu and Amanah, Politweet studied PH and Bersatu chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s reach to users in Johor.

“If we combine the interest in Dr Mahathir and in PKR and measure the divide, Umno still retains the largest exclusive share in Johor,” Politweet said.

While exclusive interest in Umno was 41%, the combined interest in Dr Mahathir and PKR was 16%, and Dr Mahathir, Umno and PKR 35%.

“Out of the 460,000 users in Johor interested in Umno, PKR on its own can reach 30.4%, and PKR and Dr Mahathir combined can reach 45.7%. 

“This still leaves 250,000 potential Johor voters on Facebooks who are only interested in Umno.”

However, Politweet said both BN and PH had issues campaigning on Facebook because only 25.45% of Johor’s 2.2 million potential voters showed interest in Umno, PKR, PAS or Dr Mahathir.

“Umno still has the advantage of a larger base of users and a greater proportion of women in its audience.

It makes it tougher for PH and Dr Mahathir to spread their message,” it said.

It was found that more than 70% users interested in PKR, PAS and DAP in Johor were men. Women had little interest in the opposition parties.

“Umno and Prime Minister Najib Razak drew more interest from women compared with the opposition parties and Dr Mahathir.”

PH’s election pie

Among the pact partners, Bersatu is contesting the most seats in Johor –  18 with a total 536,975 voters. Sixteen of them are Malay-majority seats and two are mixed.

DAP will contest 14 seats (558,914 voters), of which 10 are Chinese majority seats, in Johor. The rest are mixed seats.

PKR and Amanah will each run for 12 seats with a total 308,457 and 369,709 voters, respectively.

PKR gets 11 Malay seats and one mixed seat while Amanah’s seats are all Malay majority. – January 24, 2018.