UMNO’s withdrawal of its support for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government is a culmination of the party’s dissatisfaction of having to play a minor role in the administration, political analysts said.

They told The Malaysian Insight that the straw that broke the camel’s back was when Muhyiddin went against the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s decree and revoked the emergency ordinances before they were debated in Parliament.

This, they said, became one of the triggers for Umno to rescind their support.

Analysts also said that the “court cluster” involving Umno leaders facing criminal charges is another contributing factor, as the party feels that by virtue of being part of the government, its top leaders should not be subjected to what may be perceived as “political persecution” by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government.

On Tuesday, Umno announced that it has withdrawn support for Muhyiddin and PN, adding that 11 of its members have retracted their support.

Following this announcement, Muhyiddin, after a meeting with the King, said a motion of confidence will be tabled when Parliament convenes in September to test his majority.

Major player

Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, of the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said that for the longest time, Umno was the dominant party and as such, it does not take kindly to playing a small role.

Umno has are eight ministers and eight deputy ministers in the Muhyiddin administration.

“The party president (Ahmad Zahid Hamidi) would want a prominent role in the government, but with his cases still in court, he could not be given any position,” he said, adding that Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s appointment as deputy prime minister failed to placate the party.

The fact that Ismail is seen to be more loyal to Muhyiddin, and not the party’s president, does not help matters, Tunku Mohar said.

He added that another reason behind Umno’s decision could also be that the party wants to work with a new coalition to bring Umno back to power.

Fear of losing seats

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Umno’s motive behind withdrawing their support for PN is because they fear losing seats in the next general elections.

“Umno pulling away from Bersatu is because if they continue working with them, then it’s (possible) that Umno will be asked to give up their traditional seats held by those who jumped the party.

“This will then cause Umno to lose their place as the dominant Malay party in the next GE,” he said.

Awang Azman said another reason Umno pulled their support from PN is because they want Muhyiddin to be replaced with a candidate from Umno.

This, he said, was what happened in Perak and Johor where there was a change of leadership from Bersatu to Umno.

He said that the current political crisis is very dynamic and whether Zahid or Muhiyiddin will earn the majority support from Umno MPs will only be known at the last moment when they cast their votes in Parliament.

As to why the confidence vote cannot be held now as suggested by the opposition and the public, Awang Azman pointed out that PN is still not certain of their numbers.

“Currently, the PN government is not confident in facing a rather difficult situation and there is no guarantee in favour of PN (getting votes).

“This consideration has led them to the month of September for Parliament to convene,” he said.

‘Court cluster’

Political analyst Oh Ei Sun said Umno, having joined the PN coalition, would have expected the court cases against its leaders to be dropped.

“From Umno’s perspective, their demands are legitimate because they perceive (that) their senior leaders have been politically persecuted by the PH administration.

“They feel that now that they are back in power, all these cases should be removed and if not then there is something wrong with this government under the leadership of Muhyiddin and Bersatu,” Oh said.

Muhyiddin in his televised press conference yesterday also pointed out that Umno’s decision to withdraw support for him was due to his refusal to drop the charges against its leaders.

Oh said that in the eyes of Umno’s leaders, Muhyiddin and Bersatu seem to be continuing the political persecution against them.

Zahid and former prime minister Najib Razak are among the Umno leaders who are facing numerous charges including corruption, money-laundering and abuse of power.

Oh also said that the only way to test the veracity of Ismail Sabri’s claim that Muhyiddin has the backing of 40 Barisan Nasional MPs is when the motion of confidence is tabled in Parliament in September.

“Let’s see if there is a motion in Parliament as promised. Will Muhyiddin survive or will Umno succeed in defeating him and forcing him to step down,” he said.

Four possible outcomes

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said that there are four possible outcomes to a confidence vote in Parliament come September.

“The best case scenario for Umno is to see a new prime minister installed but otherwise the status quo is maintained,” he said on Facebook.

Or Muhyiddin could survive by neutralising some Umno rebels, or co-opting Warisan or Pejuang, he said.

A vote could also lead to the installation of a new government, if Umno is left with no choice but to work with PH.

“Lastly, Muhyiddin could stay on in a minority government. This can happen if Muhyiddin loses the confidence vote but his coalition remains the largest bloc, and (is) not voted out later with some form of confidence and supply agreement understanding.”

In the event of a hung parliament, a confidence and supply agreement can be reached wherein opposition members agree not to cast a vote of no confidence against the prime minister of a minority government and vote with the government on budgetary matters. – August 6, 2021.