THE contrasting tones of the annual meetings of two of Umno’s largest wings were hints to where the votes for the ruling party will come from in the 14th general election.

The Wanita Umno and Umno Youth assemblies that kicked off the Barisan Nasional’s leading Malay party’s annual gathering also indicated that the opposition, Pakatan Harapan faces an uphill battle as as it seeks to end Umno’s 60-year rule.

An air of confidence and calm pervaded the Wanita Umno assembly, where the delegates’ speeches were nearly devoid of attacks on the opposition.

The exception was Wanita Umno chief Shahrizat Abdul Jalil who briefly harangued the opposition and declared war on it.

But most Wanita delegates who spoke did not express worry that the opposition was making an impact on  Malay-Muslim women - whose votes who make up half of the party’s traditional support base.

Malay Muslims make up about 53% of the roughly 14.3 million eligible voters nationwide.

Of the total Malay votes in Peninsular Malaysia, BN took the larger share of 59% in 2008 and increased that to 64% in 2013, according to a study by DAP lawmaker and election analysts Ong Kian Ming.

Still, BN lost its two-thirds majority in both polls on the back of non-Malay votes and in 2013, formed the federal government despite gaining only 47% of the popular vote, while PH obtained 52%.

In contrast to the women, the youth assembly speakers touched on the opposition’s threat to the Malay Muslim and young male votes, which totals about 1.2 million.

This concern ties with Merdeka Centre’s recent findings that 70% of young people surveyed said they did not care for politics. The overall disinterest of young people in voting is reflected in the four million young people of voting age who are not registered to vote, according to the Election Commission.

Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin dedicated nearly half of his policy speech to debunking PH propaganda and criticising its leaders.

That part of Khairy’s speech, said Umno Youth No. 2, Khairul Azwan Harun, would be a useful tool for the wing’s activists and campaigners as they go toe-to-toe against PH operatives in the battle for the youth vote.

“It was a point-by-point rebuttal of the opposition’s message and we thank him for giving it so that we may use it to defeat the opposition,” said Khairul.

Women and the personal touch

The confidence in Wanita Umno and the consternation in Umno Youth reflect the voting trend of the Malay-Muslim base of the two wings.

Political analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan said Malay Muslim women generally supported and voted for Umno and the BN coalition.

The opposition has found women voters to be the hardest to woo in Johor and Kedah as the bulk of the Malay women vote is in the hands of Wanita Umno and Umno’s young women’s wing, Puteri, said Wan Saiful, citing surveys conducted by Bersatu, a PH component party. 

“It has to do with the women’s social network and how Wanita Umno is very good at using those networks to get the message across. 

“Wanita Umno programmes focus on the personal touch and on forging ties with individual women voters,” said Wan Saiful who heads the Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs.

Malay women voters are also less exposed to alternative political ideas compared with men, who attend political ceramah and hang out in coffeeshops where such conversations take place, he said.

Penang Wanita Umno delegate Rozi Ishak said personal involvement was a tried-and-true strategy of the party.

Such a strategy calls for each Wanita Umno member to look after 10 Malay Muslim women voters in the village or housing area.

“We constantly visit the women at home and talk to them about the government’s programmes. The home is also where we counterr opposition propaganda,” said the Bagan Umno division member.

Shahrizat, the Wanita Umno chief summed up the women’s vote for Umno:  “The wanita have always been are stable and loyal supporters. They don’t stray.”

Uncertainty over men and youths

But the opposite is true when it comes to the Malay youths and especially so for the men. And this anxiety was discernible among the Umno Youth assembly.

“We are able to make sure that the parents are with us. But we know that their children, who are coming back from the cities, are not,” Rozi said.

As an indication of the opposition’s popularity among Malay youth, Bersatu Armada (Youth) chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman has said that 41% of the party members were youths aged 18 to 35 years old.

In his speech, Khairy went on a lengthy tirade against PH’s attempts to reignite a yearning for the golden age of modern Malaysia in the 1980s and 1990s under former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Dr Mahathir is now chairman of the PH alliance, of which Anwar Ibrahim is de facto leader. The four-party coalition hopes to tap into nostalgia for the economic boom years and decisive leadership when Dr Mahathir and Anwar were in charge.

Khairy called it a false nostalgia as it hid the financial scandals that occurred under Dr Mahathir, such as the Perwaja Steel fiasco, Bank Negara Malaysia’s forex losses and the Port Klang Free Zone debacle.

Wan Saiful of IDEAS said compared to Malay women voters, Malay men are a lot of harder for Umno to convince.

Men are more exposed to alternative ideas via social media and their wider social network makes them more critical of Umno propaganda, which makes them easier to convert to PH supporters.

As such, while Bersatu has a tough time winning Malay Muslim women, it is finding a lot of support among young Malay men, said Wan Saiful.

“When the opposition wants to convince a Malay woman, they have to also convince her friend sitting next to her who may be an Umno supporter. 

“But to win a man, the opposition just needs to send him a message over WhatsApp,” said Wan Saiful. – December 8, 2017.