A VIRAL WhatsApp message shared in Tg Piai recently claimed that Budget 2020 has funds for men who want to marry more than one wife and this has voters hopping mad.

It’s one of the main reasons that 48% of Tg Piai voters want to reject Pakatan Harapan in the by-election, a survey by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) shows.

The message is one of many fake news items and misinformation spread among villages and community circles in Tg Piai – a predominantly agricultural constituency at the southern-most tip of the peninsula.

The spread of fake news is one of the top three factors that will determine whether PH can hold on to the seat in the November 16 by-election, IDE said.

The by-election is expected to be a three-way fight among Bersatu’s Karmaine Sardini, Gerakan’s Wendy Subramaniam and Barisan Nasioanal’s Wee Jeck Seng.

IDE senior programme manager Kamarulbahrin Zahid told The Malaysian Insight the other two factors are raising its support among Malay voters and maintaining Chinese votes.

“When we asked why they wanted to reject Pakatan, villagers would take out their phones and show us these messages.

“Every villager we met was part of a WhatsApp group, it was their first source of news. Second was Facebook,” said Kamarulbahrin, explaining how pervasive these platforms are shaping opinions.

“Almost all of these messages were fakes. It is a problem because unlike urban folk, there are not many people in these WhatsApp groups that verify or counter suspicious messages, so fake news goes unchallenged.”  

PH activists campaigning in Tg Piai must teams dedicated to countering fake news and delivering accurate information on the government, he said.

Although 48% of respondents said they want to vote against PH, this does not automatically mean that 52% are supportive of the coalition.

Kamarulbahrin said the full results of the survey, including PH’s support levels will be revealed to the public soon after nomination day on Saturday.

Malay and Chinese support

About 57% of Tg Piai’s 52,986 voters are Malays, 42% Chinese and the remainder Indians.

In GE14, PH’s Dr Md Farid Md Rafik beat MCA’s Wee, who had held the Johor parliamentary seat for two terms, by a narrow 524 votes. Nordin Othman of PAS polled 2,962 votes.

Opposition front BN is confident about recapturing the seat from PH because it claims that this time, PAS votes will go to it.

PAS and Umno inked a political pact last month. On paper, the combination of PAS and BN votes will overwhelm the 524 votes PH garnered to win.

To retain the seat, Kamarulbahrin said PH needs to do additional things besides countering fake news.

First, it needs to gain and maintain 35% of the Malay vote, up from the 32% it received in the 14th general election.

Second, Pakatan also needs to ensure that its support among Chinese voters stays at about 65% and more importantly, that the turnout from this community is high during polling day on November 16.

This is because going by the trend of by-elections this year in Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Rantau, the turnout for Chinese voters was about 60% to 63% as many did not travel back to vote.

PH lost in all three of those by-elections.

In comparison, the turnout among Malay voters in these by-elections is between 75% and 80%.

“So besides combating fake news, Pakatan must raise their support among Malays and maintain their support among Chinese and get them to come back and vote.” – October 31, 2019.