HOW many of Pakatan Harapan’s Malay supporters turn out to vote, and which way the PAS votes swing are the factors deciding the outcome of the Semenyih by-election today.

The polls have become a mini-referendum on the government’s 10-month record.

A study by Ilham Centre found that as of yesterday afternoon, two of the front-runners, PH and Barisan Nasional, are locked in an intense contest for the Malay vote.

The think-tank said BN could pull off an upset and recapture the state constituency it lost in the May 9 elections.

PH activists said the biggest concern is achieving a 60% turnout, especially in the Malay middle-class voting districts of Kantan Permai, Bukit Mahkota and Tasik Kesuma, where a third of the total constituents reside.

PH officials are positive about maintaining the coalition’s high Chinese and Indian support and said there is increased support from the Orang Asli community.

“Our surveys indicate that we can maintain the same level of support among middle-class Malays in these three voting districts,” said Khairul Annuar Zit of Amanah, the component party designated to campaign in Kantan Permai Bukit Mahkota and Tasik Kesuma.

PH garnered between 48% and 55% of the vote in these three districts in GE14.

“But the main challenge is to get our supporters out to vote. If they balik kampung or they are too busy and feel the election is not important enough, then we are in trouble,” said Khairul.

To have a shot at capturing Semenyih, BN needs to convert as many PAS members as possible to its side, as well as persuade about 2,000 voters who supported PH in GE14 to switch sides.

The state seat, which is close to the Negri Sembilan border southeast of Selangor, has 53,257 voters. Malays make up 68% of voters, followed by Chinese (17%), Indians (14%) and Orang Asli (1%).

100% plus 10% 

In GE14, 84.3% of the Semenyih vote was split three ways – between PH with 23,428 votes, BN (14,464) and PAS (6,996). Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) snatched 1,293 votes.

This time, Semenyih is being fought over by PH, BN, PSM and independent Kuan Chee Heng. But political analysts from Ilham Centre and Institut Darul Ehsan said most voters would seriously consider only PH or BN.

PAS has pledged full support for BN. If PAS delivers, based on the GE14 results, it will boost BN’s votes to 21,460 votes – still 2,000 short of a win.

Khairul of PH does not believe that those who supported PAS a year ago will vote for BN now due to the historical animosity between the two parties. He said the observation is based on conversations with PAS voters.

“They say no matter if their uztaz tells them to vote BN, they will not do it.”

PAS operatives, such as Negri Sembilan commissioner Rafiei Mustapha, however, said members will fall in line and obey the party leaders.

“We met PAS branch leaders who admitted voting for PH in GE14. They regret their choice and now say they will vote BN,” said Rafiei, who heads the PAS campaign in the voting districts of Sesapan Kelubi, Sesapan Minangkabau and Sg Jai.

“Unlike other party members, PAS members have been taught to follow what their leaders say.”

Even if that were true, BN still needs 2,000 extra votes to secure a winning majority.

Selangor PAS election director Roslan Shahir said the plan is to hand over to BN all 6,996 of PAS’ votes, plus 10% more.

These 699 votes will come from the people who voted PH in GE14, but who have been persuaded by PAS to switch sides, said Roslan.

Chinese vote

In the four Chinese-majority polling districts of Semenyih, PH official Brian Lai said the ruling coalition has ignited interest in voters who were initially not interested.

Chinese voter support for PH in GE14 was as high as 72% in certain districts and their votes are vital in the face of a BN-PAS onslaught.

“When we first went into the new villages, there was a lot of grumbling. People told us they were dissatisfied with the government over unfulfilled promises. The late assemblyman (Bakhtiar Mohd Nor) had also passed away before he could get his service team together.

“But after we went from house to house and brought with us leaders like (Deputy Dewan Rakyat Speaker) Nga Kor Ming and (Primary Industries Minister) Teresa Kok to explain things to them, their opinions turned positive,” said Lai, who is the Teratai assemblyman.

Chinese voters are concentrated in Kg Baru Broga, Pekan Semenyih, Kg Baru Semenyih and Semenyih Indah, where Lai and his team, mostly from DAP, have been working.

Lai added that DAP is also blasting out messages on social media to get Semenyih voters who are out of town to return and vote today. – March 2, 2019.