PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali is hard pressed to maintain his slim lead over challenger Rafizi Ramli when polling is held in Sabah this weekend.

“I would say that Azmin would not mind taking a narrow defeat of 1,000-1,500 votes to his rival Rafizi,” said a source from Azmin’s camp.

Azmin’s Achilles’ heel, said the source, is his stance as the economic affairs minister over the oil royalty payment to Sabah and Sarawak.

“Sabah and Sarawak won’t take it easy because Azmin agreed with the prime minister that the royalty payment should derive from Petronas’ gross profit, not output,” said the source.

“Issues like the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and the state’s rights are very sensitive.”

However, he said, Azmin remained cautiously optimistic as voting sentiment in Sabah was difficult to predict.

“Azmin has made good ground so far with members across Sabah but how much will translate into votes has yet to be ascertained,” he said.

Sabah PKR has 143,639 members in all 25 divisions, the second largest in the country after Selangor’s 220,000, or around 17% of the total number of members nationwide.

A party source from Tawau said Azmin would be able to win in at least 12 of the 25 divisions in Sabah.

Rafizi, on the other hand, has the advantage with more than 14 divisions, the source said.

Ranau, Tawau, Batu Sapi, Kinabatangan, Kalabakan, Libaran, Beluran, and Sandakan will vote for Azmin, said the source.

But Rafizi will capture Kota Marudu, Pensiangan, Beaufort, Semporna, Keningau, Kota Kinabalu, Tenom, Kota Belud, Tuaran, Sipitang, Penampang, and Putatan.

“It’s 12 divisions for Rafizi and eight for Azmin. The ones that are 50:50 are Silam, Sepanggar, Kudat, Papar, and Kimanis,” said the source.

Several sources from Rafizi’s camp even predicted that the former Pandan lawmaker would be able to capture between 65% and 70% of the votes in Sabah.

This will be a huge margin for him to secure for the PKR deputy president post, considering Azmin only has a 1,450 lead in the latest poll tally.

If Rafizi secures a big win in Sabah, it could be almost impossible for Azmin to claim victory, even if he wins in Sarawak, an observer said.

“The inclination right now is with Rafizi. Even if Azmin wins in the state, it would be by a very, very narrow margin. He could still lose in Sarawak later,” he said.

“The problem with Rafizi at this point is that there have been talks that the Warisan leadership is not in favour if he captures the deputy president post.

“This is largely due to Rafizi’s tendency to be a whistle-blower and not diplomatically resolve issues,” said the observer, adding that the strength of Rafizi’s camp is due to the support of the large number of Youth members in Sabah. – November 2, 2018.