PAS is expected to lose its crown jewel if it gets into three-cornered fights in Kelantan, according to a survey commissioned by the Kelantan government.

The survey, conducted by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), however, laid out a few solutions for the state’s ruling party if it wants to keep Kelantan, which PAS has ruled since 1990.

“IDE’s suggestion for PAS is to contest 27 out of the 45 state seats and let other Pakatan Harapan parties contest the remaining seats to ensure straight fights with Barisan Nasional. 

“IDE is confident that PAS can win all the 27 seats and hold the majority after the general election and continue to remain in power in Kelantan,” a source from the think-tank told The Malaysian Insight. 

Based on the study, PAS can only win about 15 state seats if the Islamist party is involved in three-cornered fights.

The source said results of the survey were presented to Kelantan Menteri Besar Ahmad Yakob and other state leaders recently by the institute’s deputy chairman, Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman. 

The study also revealed that PAS received the most support from voters in Kelantan, leading with 54% , BN (38%) while PH could only muster around 8%.

The support, however, did not include out-of-state voters, Redzuan told the Kelantan leaders. 

He added that even before PH announced its leadership line-up and logo, support for the opposition coalition had already increased. 

The IDE study also showed that Umno has traditionally being able to raise its number of voters between 6% and 15% as the elections draw closer.

The increase is due to several factors, including the redelineation of constituencies. 

Another study by Ilham Centre found that between 15% and 30% of Kelantan voters live outside the state, and that most of them are leaning towards Pakatan Harapan.

“Our study for the Manik Urai state seat in Kuala Krai finds that the seat has almost 30% voters living outside Kelantan,” its executive chairman, Hisomuddin Bakar, said. 

Currently, PAS has 31 state seats, BN (11) and Amanah and PKR one each. 

BN lost one of its seats after Neggiri assemblyman Mat Yusof Abdul Ghana was declared bankrupt, which disqualified him from the state assembly. – July 21, 2017.