INFIGHTING in the PAS-Pakatan Harapan Selangor government and the prospect of multi-candidate fights in the 14th general election are giving Umno grassroots a ray of hope in their bid to recapture the state.

“It’s like (acting party deputy president) Zahid Hamidi said, this is the best time to recapture Selangor,” said Wan Mohd Yusof Wan Abdullah of the Taman Raja Muda branch in Klang.

Zahid has been repeating the line at every annual meeting he’s launched at Selangor Umno’s 22 divisions as he personally leads the charge to take back the country’s richest state in the next general election.

Selangor Umno leaders told The Malaysian Insight that they were targeting 30 state seats in the next GE, giving Barisan Nasional a simple majority in the 56-seat state assembly.

All Umno needs to do is to defend the 12 seats it holds now and win 18 more. These 18 are expected to see multi-cornered fights between PAS and Pakatan Harapan parties  PKR, Bersatu and Amanah,  thus splitting the vote going to the opposition.

For grassroots leaders such as Wan Mohd Yusof, current circumstances in Selangor have created the perfect storm for Umno and the Barisan Nasional coalition it leads. Among these factors they said are:

•  Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali clashing with his colleagues in Pakatan Harapan over former opposition ally PAS, thus turning off voters.
•  PAS announcing that it will contest in most if not all of the 56 state constituencies in Selangor, which will lead to multi-cornered fights that benefit the BN.
•  Umno and BN, having put behind the infighting that crippled their campaign during the 13th general election in 2013, are confident of being a cohesive machine.

“This is the best time. If we can’t win this time around, then we might as well close shop,” said Wan Mohd Yusof, who is Klang division information chief.

Unified Umno

In a shock upset in the 12th general election in 2008, BN lost Selangor – historically a government electoral bastion – to a loose pact comprising PKR, DAP and PAS who between them captured 36 out of 56 seats.

Party president and Prime Minister Najib Razak then led an aggressive campaign to take back Selangor in GE13, only to see BN lose even more seats while Pakatan Rakyat captured three-fourths, or 44, state seats.

From 20 seats in 2008, by 2013, BN was left with 12 only seats, all of them belonging to Umo. Its partners MCA, MIC and Gerakan were totally wiped out.

Wan Mohd Yusof blamed this spectacular loss on disgruntled Umno grassroots leaders who sabotaged their party’s campaign.

“When they were not chosen as candidates, some did not go out and get their members to vote. Some voted for the opposition and some even campaigned for the opposition,” he said.

“They told voters to vote for the candidate who is ‘just’ (adil),” an oblique reference to PKR – Parti Keadilan Rakyat [or People’s Justice Party in English].

The low level of Chinese support towards BN didn’t help either. Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong was reported as saying that BN managed to get only 13.4% of the Chinese vote.

Being out of power for two terms has sobered up Umno’s feuding warlords claimed Wan Mohd Yusof.

“Nowadays, the divisions don’t care who the senior leadership chooses as our candidates. We will support whomever they choose. We’re tired of being the opposition in Selangor.”

Cautiously optimistic

But what has made them even more optimistic is PAS breaking up with its allies PKR and DAP.

“When it happened [in May] it’s like a light shone through the darkness for us,” said party branch leader Mohamad Razali Nasir, describing how Umno members viewed that development.

After breaking from DAP and PKR, PAS said that it will go at it alone in the next general election.

This will put it on a collision course with BN and the new opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan, which comprises DAP, PKR, Bersatu and Amanah.

Analysts had said multi-cornered fights between two opposition parties and BN would always benefit the latter as votes going the opposition as a whole are split.

The prospect of this occurring in Selangor is so serious that PH’s Azmin insists on pursuing talks with PAS even though this is not going down well with partners DAP and Amanah.

In the Morib sate seat, where Razali’s Kanchong Perdana branch is located, the PAS divorce could benefit Umno.

Morib assemblyman Hasnul Baharuddin was one of two PAS state reps who joined Amanah. Razali expects angry supporters of the Islamist party to abandon Hasnol who is now with PH.

“After PAS broke off, I believe we can get Morib back.”

His colleagues such as Hulu Langat division chief Sulaiman Kardi, said another seat in the Kuala Langat division, Sijangkang is going to be recaptured. Sijangkang is held by PAS.

Other leaders, such as Mohd Al-Hafizi Abu Bakar, are keeping their fingers crossed that there are no new national issues that could derail Umno’s momentum.

“We’ve built up the machinery and ready to go. We just hope that our (party) president can give that one extra push for us to cross the finish line.”

But they admit the obstacles are still formidable. Rising costs of living are biting into the pockets of low-income urbanites, while the 1Malaysia Development Bhd [1MDB] issue continues to grab headlines among Selangor’s middle class.

“We’re not saying that we are perfect,” said Kelana Jaya division information chief Kalam Azad Abu Bakar when asked about how Umno was going to respond to the above issues.

“But what we’re saying is that at least we are better than PH, who can’t even work together in government. I think after all these years of political crises in Selangor, residents can see that.” – August 2, 2017.