THE clearest sign that Pakatan Harapan needs the support of its former ally PAS to take over federal power comes from one of its most influential leaders, Mohamed Azmin Ali.

The Selangor menteri besar may not have said it out loud but his actions in the past week show that even in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, PH needs PAS.

The Klang Valley has the country’s most politically tuned-in voters.

In the 2013 general election, the then Pakatan Rakyat parties won 17 and 44 of Selangor’s parliamentary and state seats respectively.

Of the 13 Federal Territory seats, PH parties, DAP and PKR, won all except for Putrajaya, Labuan, Setiawangsa and Titiwangsa.

But today, it is uncertain if PH parties can keep the seats it won in 2013 if it goes up against PAS and the ruling Barisan Nasional in the 14th general election.

Azmin’s rationale 

After it broke up with DAP and PKR, PAS announced that it is aiming to contest 40 parliamentary seats all over the country.

In May, the Islamist party’s federal territories Youth chief Mohd Farhan Mohd Zain said it wanted to contest in nine of the 13 FT seats. The nine are currently held by PKR and DAP.

Farhan said PAS would focus on the Malay-Muslim voters in these seats who make up between 4% (in Kepong) and 94% (in Putrajaya) of the electorate.

Its main message would centre on PAS’ brand of Islamist politics that it hopes will resonate with Malay Muslims.

“Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan do not have a vision of developing a country that is based on the commandments of the divine,” Farhan told The Malaysian Insight.

As political analysts have explained, the history of Malaysian elections show that when two opposition parties go up against BN, their votes are split and the ruling regime ends up victorious.

In 2013, this happened in two urban Selangor seats, Semenyih and Kota Damansara, where two opposition candidates were fielded against one from BN. Had they pooled their votes, either party could have won those seats.

Sources in PH said these two cases are one of the main reasons Azmin, who is also PKR deputy president, continues to talk to PAS even after the latter said it has cut ties with PKR.

PAS’ ability to muster enough support in the Klang Valley and derail PH and its own chances of winning is so serious that Azmin is prepared to anger his current allies.

PKR is currently partnered with DAP, Amanah and Bersatu.

“We have to keep our doors open to PAS. We understand the anger from our allies. But they have to also understand that PAS is still important to defeating BN,” said a PH leader when justifying Azmin’s stand.

It is learnt that even seats occupied by popular PKR personalities, such as Nurul Izzah Anwar in Lembah Pantai, Chua Tian Chang (Batu) and Azmin’s own Gombak, would be jeopardised by a three-cornered fight.

PH’s best chance of keeping these seats would be to form an electoral pact in GE14 to ensure straight fights between any opposition party and BN.

Room for talks

However, PH is banking on the that fact that unlike PAS members in other parts of the country, the majority of them in the Klang Valley are still friendly to PH.

“We have no problems with PAS grassroots members even till today. We are still in touch with them and we still help them with their programmes,” said Hazrul Fahmi Ahmad, a PKR grassroots leader based in Kuala Lumpur.

It is this informal camaraderie that makes PKR leaders, such as Fahmi Fadzil, optimistic that some sort of electoral understanding can be worked out with PAS for seats in Selangor and the Federal Territories.

“The reality is that to defeat BN, we have to find a way to ensure straight fights. That is why we are keeping communications channels open with PAS. Multi-cornered fights only ensure a BN victory.”

It is learnt that this hope is also reciprocated on the PAS side. Some of its leaders are trying to hash out a pact for straight fights that will cover only Selangor and the Federal Territories.

But whether that pact will materialise at all is questionable, given that authority in PAS is centralised in its president, Abdul Hadi Awang.

And Hadi has repeatedly stated that PAS is forming a third opposition bloc called Gagasan Sejahtera, which will take on PH and BN.

A senior PKR leader who has dealt with Hadi still believes there is room for talks.

“Hadi may seem that way in public but even he, when it comes down to the line, will be practical,” said the PKR leader who requested anonymity.

“At the end of the day, Hadi is still a politician.” – July 13, 2017.