UMNO is reeling.

Its image as the protector of the Malay agenda is in tatters, with disclosures of alleged corruption in the Najib government emerging almost daily. Every scandal laid bare by the Pakatan Harapan government makes a mockery of Umno’s claim that it’s raison d’etre is to look after the Malays.

Things will only get bleaker for Umno when its former president Najib Razak is charged in court for offences related to a certain sum of money found in his bank accounts allegedly from government-owned SRC International.

And then there are the Felda scandals and the dodgy deals the Najib government had signed with China. 

“Although charges have yet to be filed, with all these scandals, the image of Umno as a defender of the Malay agenda has been tainted,” said Associate Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya’s Socio-culture Department.  

The lack of a clear replacement for Najib has made recovery almost impossible for the party at the moment. Acting president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi did not inspire confidence by going to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad for advice on how to revive Umno.

Zahid is likely to be challenged by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, 81, for the post of party president in the coming party polls. 

The current mood in the party may be gauged by Hishammuddin Hussein’s decision not to run for the deputy president’s post.

“When Hishammuddin himself, the heir apparent to Umno, says he has decided not to contest for a senior post, it shows the morale of the party’s leadership is at an all-time low.” said Awang Azman.

Umno did not only lose control of Putrajaya, it lost nearly all the states excepting Perlis and Pahang. In a week, Sarawak political parties will exit Barisan Nasional.

“This shows how brittle Umno is right now. It is no longer seen as a big brother.”

To change or not to change

Some analysts believe the key to Umno’s survival is to take a more inclusive approach. 

Of the 79 seats won by BN, Umno has 54, easily the largest bloc among the opposition ranks. There are 222 seats in Parliament, 125 are controlled by Pakatan Harapan and its Sabah allies, Warisan and Upko.

International Islamic University Malaysia assistant professor Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said Umno needed a whole new narrative for its revival.

“It cannot survive (by holding on to the concept of) ‘Ketuanan Melayu’. Maybe a return to the movement of the masses is the way forward.

“Failure to reform or revive means it’ll take a longer time for Umno to position itself as strong opposition and alternative to the ruling party,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

However, some analysts believe Umno needs a strong leader for more than a revamp of its struggle and cause.

They said the Malay party does not have to move very far from its Malays-only support base, pointing out that BN and PAS had received 50.5% of the popular vote, compared with PH’s 45.6%.

“Umno the movement doesn’t need to appeal to Malay sentiment as long as Malaysia remains a Malay-led plural society,” said Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Institute of Ethnic Studies director Shamsul Amri Baharuddin

 “PAS, Amanah, PKR are now the new actors in the Malay-led plural society of Malaysia Baru. But Umno the party, like Bersatu, will always survive on the sentiment of the Malay movement.”

Tunku Mohar of IIUM said regardless of which path Umno decides to take, it needs to move fast or risk losing even more ground support.

He said that as it stands, the party does not appear to have the makings of a strong opposition anytime soon.

“At the moment, there’s no indication that another opposition party can take the place of the former Pakatan Rakyat or Harapan,” he said.

“The current generation of leaders in Umno may take time to readjust to life as the opposition.

“Decades of being in power contributed to this.” – June 11, 2018.