IT was to be the tactical masterstroke that helped Barisan Nasional to win 150 seats and get back its precious two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Instead, befriending PAS so as to engineer three-cornered contests for seats all over the peninsula backfired badly for Najib Razak and the ruling coalition.

Out of 77 three-cornered fights, BN won 32 while Pakatan Harapan took 22. PAS won the remaining 23.

The outcome turned on its head the prediction of pundits and pollsters that the elections would be a cake-walk for Najib. 

So, what went wrong?

For a start, the conventional wisdom that in a three-cornered fight, Umno could count on its usual bloc of support while PAS and PH would cannibalise each other proved wrong.

The Malaysian tsunami happened. Umno members and traditional party supporters didn’t vote for BN candidates in many seats. In fact, BN received only 33.9% of the popular vote, nearly 13% fewer votes from 2013. 

Ironically, the party that was supposed to dilute support for PH turned out to be the spoiler for BN.

A look at the GE14 results showed PAS actually hurt BN’s chances in 24 seats. In three-cornered fights, the total votes for the two losers added up to more than the votes for the winner.

In Bentong, MCA president and former transport minister Liow Tiong Lai lost by 2,032 votes after polling 23,684 votes. His rival Wong Tack (PH) polled 25,716 while N. Balasubramaniam (PAS) finished with 5,706 votes. There were 783 spoilt votes.

The PAS effect was so strong that even the re-delineation could not help BN in the super-Malay majority Lumut seat.

Despite the moving of the Chinese-majority state seat of Sitiawan to Beruas, former Perak menteri besar Zambry Abd Kadir (21,555) lost by just 400 votes to PH’s Mohd Hatta Md Ramli (21,955). The PAS candidate Mohammed Zamri Ibrahim took home 10,135 votes.

The PAS spoiler effect also vanquished many of BN’S stronger candidates.

Notable BN candidates who lost included MIC deputy president S.K. Devamany (Sungai Siput), former finance minister Ahmad Husin Mohamad Hanadzlah (Tambun), former Perak exco Mah Hang Soon (Tanjung Malim), MCA Wanita chief Chew Mei Fun (Raub), former deputy education minister P. Kamalanathan (Hulu Selangor), former finance minister Johari Abdul Ghani (Titiwangsa), former deputy transport minister Ab Aziz Kaprawi (Sri Gading) and former deputy sports minister Wee Jack Seng (Tanjung Piai).

“BN miscalculated when it thought it could win easily after PAS split from the opposition,” said Penang Institute political analyst Dr Wong Chin Huat.

He said BN had underestimated the swing vote which benefited the stronger party in the area.

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research Ibrahim Suffian said voters tended to gravitate towards the winning party.

“So, where PAS is strong (Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu), voters who did not want to vote BN went for PAS. And in other states, they went for PH and thus diluted BN’s strength,” said the pollster.

Ibrahim said the “original” opposition voters stayed with PAS while a “second wave” of opposition voters moved to PH. – May 21, 2018.