ON polling night, there were shocked looks around Malaysia as one by one PAS candidate won in Terengganu and Kelantan. 

By the time counting was completed, the Islamist party had confounded its critics and defended Kelantan, snared Terengganu and picked up 18 parliamentary seats in the two east coast states and Kedah.

Conventional wisdom suggested that by detaching itself from the opposition and going it alone, PAS candidates would be decimated in three-cornered contests across the peninsula. ‎The thinking was that PAS would only be able to rely on its own members and supporters and would be defeated by candidates from Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, who enjoyed a broader base of support.

But what no one factored in was that PAS would benefit from the groundswell of anger against Najib Razak and BN over cost of living and the goods and services tax (GST) and take advantage of structural weaknesses of both PH and BN in the states where it was strongest. 

Analyst Hisomuddin Bakar said the BN vote was split in these two states with some party members and supporters voting for anyone but BN. With a superior machinery, brand and quality of candidates, PAS captured the protest votes.

“Where the locals were angry over GST, they abandoned BN and voted for PAS. Pakatan was not strong enough to benefit from this movement away from BN,” he said.

On the west coast of the peninsula where most of the seats are mixed with a high percentage of non-Malays, PAS performed dismally. Here, PH candidates benefited from the anti-BN sentiment.

But in mainly Malay and deeply conservative Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, the swing vote flowed to PAS.‎

The day before May 9, all roads to Kelantan were clogged with vehicles, as voters rushed home for polling day. Many carried the flags of political parties.

The flag that stood out and on most cars, according to Nik Kamil, a senior state civil servant, was the white moon-on-green of PAS.

Support from outstation voters and swing voters helped PAS beat the odds in GE14, said local politicians and voters.

Also aiding the PAS cause in ‎Kelantan and Terengganu was the fact BN and PH fielded many candidates who were either unknown or with questionable reputation.

“In Terengganu, it was like BN was contesting to lose,” said Terengganu PH chief Raja Kamarul Bahrain, of BN’s candidates.

“Eight of their candidates were unknown and only had SPM certificates. They were also unpopular within Umno,” said Raja Kamarul, who failed to defend his Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency.

In Kelantan, PH’s candidates were also problematic and had trouble gaining the trust of local opinion makers, such as successful businessmen and the influential Kelantan civil service, said Nik Kamil.  

“They were untrustworthy. Kelantanese did not just look at the political parties but the quality of the candidates. And their quality was just poor,” said Nik Kamil, who has served under three PAS administrations.

Although PH fielded Nik Omar Nik Abdul Aziz to take advantage of nostalgia for his iconic father Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, it was not enough. Nik Omar was cast as betraying his father.

“Nik Omar man be very similar to his dad. But to Kelantanese, Nik Aziz is PAS and PAS is Nik Aziz,” said Nik Kamil.    

In Terengganu, PH just could not shake off the fear of DAP among swing voters, said Raja Kamarul.

“In our dialogue with voters, they accepted all our policy proposals and our arguments. But when it came to DAP, they just could not believe us,” said Raja Kamarul, adding that locals feared that PH would be controlled by the Chinese in DAP.

This sentiment persisted even when Dr Mahathir Mohamad, a well-known advocate of Malay rights when he was prime minister, was announced as PH’s prime minister-designate.

But all said and done, GE14 showed that core supporters remained with their parties but swing voters and fence-sitters went to the most prominent party in a particular constituency or state. 

In Kelantan, Terengganu and to a certain extent, Kedah, that most prominent party was PAS. – May 11, 2018.