GLOBAL stock markets mostly dipped yesterday, the first trading day of the year, as a global equity rally stumbled on concerns traders had been too optimistic in the final days of 2023. 

Stock markets soared to new heights in the final months last year in New York, Frankfurt, Paris and Tokyo, as investors piled into equities in anticipation of interest rate cuts, which can make stocks more appealing to hold.

But the rally did not extend into the new year, as investors in many markets pulled back.

“One of the concerns we have is that investors were extremely bullish going into this year, and we just think perhaps that was setting up for some disappointment” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset, told AFP.

“We expect a modest pullback,” he added, noting “we just got a little overbought on the investor enthusiasm.”

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite Index slumped 1.6% while the broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.6%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was one of the few bright points, inching up 0.1%.

‘Performance chasing’

In Europe, most major stock indexes also slipped, although the DAX in Frankfurt notched a small gain. 

Market participants have “recognised that there was some performance chasing at the end of 2023 and that some profit taking was bound to happen in the wake of a parabolic advance,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.

Nevertheless, investors retain a positive outlook, according to analysts.

“There remains an increasing belief that (Federal Reserve) rate cuts, which have bullishly marked all capital market trends in the last eight weeks, are still fully ingrained in stock market sentiment,” said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.

He added that there was a question on how investors would reconcile the difference between market expectations of 150 basis points of cuts and the Fed’s forecast of 75.

Asian market losses

Despite the upbeat outlook on rates, Asian markets started the year with little fanfare. Hong Kong and Shanghai each extended last year’s losses.

Traders were unmoved by a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping in which he said the economy had become “more resilient and dynamic.”

Observers warned that while Beijing has pledged a series of measures to kickstart growth, more was needed to instil confidence, particularly regarding the property sector.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday, though investors are keeping an eye on developments in Japan after a huge earthquake that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said caused “extensive” damage and numerous casualties.

Oil prices briefly rallied more than 2% on supply concerns after Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea in response to the US Navy’s destruction of three Huthi boats, though they later reversed course.

The advance in oil prices “turned into nothing as investors turned their attention to money markets and yields instead,” said Axel Rudolph, an analyst at trading platform IG.

Key figures around 1630 GMT

New York - Dow: UP 0.1% at 37,715.04 points (close)

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.6% at 4,742.83 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: DOWN 1.6% at 14,765.94 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2% at 7,721.52 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.2% at 7,530.86 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.1% at 16,769.36 (closed)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.2% at 4,512.81 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.5% at 16,788.55 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.4% at 2,962.28 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at  ¥141.99 from  ¥141.01

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0946 from $1.1040

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2621 from $1.2738

Euro/pound: UP at 86.70 pence from 86.63 pence 

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.5% at $75.89 per barrel  

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.8% at $70.38 per barrel – AFP, January 3, 2024.