IN 2015, PAS leaders under Abdul Hadi Awang made what has become the defining decision of the 14th general election – to make PAS a third force and compete against its former allies and traditional nemesis Umno.

On May 9, the party is likely to feel the blowback of that decision.

PAS is expected to lose its crown jewel, Kelantan, to Barisan Nasional, and be crippled in its dream of recapturing Terengganu.

In Terengganu, Hadi’s own stronghold, the anger is encapsulated in the phrase “slipper on one foot, clog on the other” (Selipar satu, terompah satu).

PAS’ decision has sparked protest among some of its members and traditional supporters who want to ditch the party in favour of rival coalition Pakatan Harapan.

As PAS and BN are evenly matched in strength in these two states, a split in the non-BN vote between PAS and PH will allow BN to squeeze through to victory, even with less than 40% of the popular vote.

Ilham Centre’s Hisommudin Bakar said BN is the biggest beneficiary of this split, given its long history and presence in the two states.

“PH has been aggressive, but its reach is still far behind in many areas due to its lack of a machinery and members. They may get support in some areas, but not enough to capture the state.”

Support for PH is also strong among outstation Kelantan and Terengganu voters, and this could tip the balance in its favour in the more urbanised seats.

PH’s chances are the best in the state and parliamentary seats of Kota Baru, Kubang Kerian and Ketereh in Kelantan, and Kuala Terengganu, Dungun, Kemaman in Terengganu.

PAS holds 14 out of 17 state seats in Terengganu, and four of its eight parliamentary seats. The party controls 32 out of 45 state seats in Kelantan, and nine of its 14 parliamentary seats.

In Terengganu, PAS activists said the whisper campaign called on members to vote for PH in parliamentary contests, but maintain support for the party at the state level.

“It’s an underground campaign among members. We are trying our best to tell them to be loyal to the party. But, it will sway our vote,” said Marang PAS activist Ramli Mohamad.

PH is confident of getting the support of non-partisan swing voters who are upset with PAS and BN, said Dungun candidate Abdul Rahman Yusof.

Together with the PAS protest vote, this would give PH between 18% and 25% of the votes. Not enough to win, but enough to split the anti-BN vote and allow BN to win.

In Kelantan, BN officials told Malaysia Decides that they are banking on a split in PAS support to capture at least 26 out of 45 state seats.

The split among PAS supporters in Kelantan is more evident than in Terengganu, after PH fielded Nik Omar Nik Abdul Aziz, the eldest son of the late Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, the revered PAS spiritual leader.

Nik Omar’s smaller “ceramah kelompok” and evening prayer lectures, or “kuliah”, have attracted scores of PAS supporters.

“He reminds people of his father. It’s not just Muslims who like him, but non-Muslims as well,” said Kamarulzaman Mohamad, who attended a ceramah in Kg Gayung and now plans to switch his vote from PAS to PH.

PAS’ poor administration of Kelantan has also turned off swing voters who, in the past, had supported it.

Wong, of Taman Masira, Bachok, is one example. Over the past five years, she has been petitioning the Kelantan government to install new pipes in her village, claiming that the water supply would only come on at midnight.

“Every time we ask the state, they say, ‘No allocation. Have to wait from federal government’. But then, during elections, they have money to print all these flags,” she said after a PH event.

“So this time, I am changing both, the state and the whole country.” – May 8, 2018.