ONE of Malaysia’s more established pollsters today put its reputation on the line, saying that Barisan Nasional (BN) would win GE14 but with under 40% of the popular vote.

Merdeka Centre for opinion research said BN has 100 safe seats, compared with Pakatan Harapan’s 82, but believes that the majority of 37 marginal seats will go to BN.

But the pollster offered a caveat to the findings – it was dependent on the voter turnout.

“The high number of marginal seats (37), implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day.”

The predictions were based on its daily tracking of sentiments among 1,579 respondents in 12 states and 70 parliamentary constituencies.

The survey asked voters if they wanted BN, PAS or PH to represent them. Subsequently, these findings were placed into Merdeka Centre’s electoral model to elicit likely choices to be made by non-responsive voters.

Based on the responses, the centre projected that BN will win 37.3% of the popular vote, lower than the 47% it gained in the 2013 general election.

PH is projected to win 43.4% of the popular vote while PAS is expected to gain 19.3%.

The survey, however, was conducted at noon on May 8 and may not capture any last minute changes or shifts that may occur during the final hours of campaigning.

It was also done before two important last speeches by caretaker prime minister and BN chairman Najib Razak and PH prime minister designate Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Both are expected to address the nation at 10pm tonight. – May 8, 2018.