A STUDY by research house Ilham Centre has found that Pakatan Harapan will win 77 parliamentary seats in the peninsula over Barisan Nasional’s 56, with the fate of 25 closely fought seats holding the key to Putrajaya.

The opinion poll conducted between April 7 and May 6 found that PAS will win only seven seats in the 14th general election. The study did not poll Sabah and Sarawak seats.

“Our observations spanning over a period of almost a month across 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia show that Pakatan Harapan is in the lead with 77 parliamentary seats and Barisan Nasional will retain 56 parliamentary seats,” said Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar in a statement issued today.

“The third coalition Gagasan Sejahtera, which is dominated by PAS, will win comfortably with seven parliamentary seats in the east coast.

“Twenty-five parliamentary seats will see a close fight among contesting parties,” he said.

Ilham Centre also said the state of Johor will fall to PH, which will successfully retain the states of Selangor and Penang. The northern states of Kedah and Perak will be closely fought, while Malacca and Negri Sembilan will pose a challenge for BN to retain.

“Twenty-three parliamentary seats are open to either Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Harapan, whereas two others are inclined towards PAS.

“Should there be a last-minute change, Pakatan Harapan could well win more than the 100 seats it needs to get to Putrajaya.”

He said the wave of change has been seen in all major cities nationwide and could lead to a victory for PH should the wave also reach rural voters.

The study also found that PH’s 77 seats will come from parliamentary seats in urban and semi-urban areas comprising mixed ethnicities, with a majority ethnic Chinese make-up.

BN’s 56 seats will come from Malay-majority and rural areas while PAS’ seven seats will come from Malay-majority areas in Kelantan and Terengganu which are the Islamist party’s strongholds.

“We conclude by saying this is an epic clash in the history of Malaysia’s general elections,” said Hisomuddin.

He also revealed that the study was the hardest analysis as it is the first election with three-way fights on a large scale, involving many complex variables. As such, data and results of past election could not be used as primary resources.

Malaysia has a first-past-the-post election system, which is based on the number of parliamentary seats won, and not the popular vote. The Dewan Rakyat has 222 parliamentary seats. – May 8, 2018.