MOHD Ismail Sulaiman has never voted for any other party other than Barisan Nasional. The thought never crossed his mind. More so in Johor, where BN is the main party.

Even when his friends voted for PAS after Anwar Ibrahim was sacked as deputy prime minister in 1998, Ismail soldiered on and picked Siam Kasrin in Batu Pahat during the 1999 election.

But the government officer said he was thinking twice now, after arriving at his second Pakatan Harapan ceramah of the night.

“I’m worried about my children, who have to borrow money from PTPTN (National Higher Education Loan Fund) to further their studies,” said the 49-year-old at the Batu Pahat ceramah two nights back.

“Where has all the scholarship money gone?” asked the Mara scholar.

Ismail represents one of the many Johoreans troubled by what they see today.

Where once they had never entertained the thought of switching parties, problems, such as corruption and the rising cost of living, have pushed them to review their choices.

Close race

The race in Johor will be close as PH could win up to 17 federal seats if support from Malay voters increases, said Dr Francis Hutchinson of the Singaporean think-tank ISEAS Ishak Yusof Institute.

In his presentation “Johor – A southern surprise” last week, Hutchinson said PH could win an additional 10 to 11 seats if it has around 29% Malay support – up from the current 19%.

Pakatan sources put the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat’s GE13 support in Johor from Malays at 20%, Chinese (77%) and Indian (55%).

According to Hutchinson’s analysis, should PH get 29% Malay support and maintain high levels of Chinese support, BN would only retain Tenggara, Kota Tinggi, Pengerang, Parit Sulong and Mersing while four others (Pagoh, Simpang Rengam, Sembrong and Pontian) would be too close to call.

The additional Pakatan seats could come from Sekijang, Labis, Ayer Hitam, Segamat, Ledang, Sri Gading, Tanjong Piai, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Johor Baru, Pulai and Muar. 

PH holds Bakri, Pagoh, Kluang, Iskandar Puteri (formerly Gelang Patah), Batu Pahat and Kulai. 

In this scenario, PAS is assumed to have 19.7% Malay and negligible non-Malay support, and would only play a spoiler’s role that is not expected to win it any federal seat.

The projections were based on a Merdeka Centre for Public Opinion survey, conducted between April 9 and 16, that found Malay support for BN had dropped from 80% (GE13) to 60.9% in April this year. It also put Chinese support for BN at 22.4% while Indian support was at 64%.

Hutchinson’s projections are based on the Merdeka Centre’s survey and his own study of five seats – Pagoh, Pengerang, Pasir Gudang, Ayer Hitam and Pulai. – May 8, 2018.