MALAYSIANS could wake up to a new government on Thursday only if the massive wave for change in urban centres cascades to rural areas over the next 48 hours, a study has concluded.

Ilham Centre’s researcher Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar said this wave will negate the shortcomings of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) machinery on the ground, especially outside major towns where the ability to reach and influence voters depends on platoons of foot soldiers.

“I’m confident that if this wave reaches the kampung, PH will win Putrajaya,” said Hisomuddin, whose team of researchers completed their latest nationwide study on Malay voters‎.

But this scenario depends on a big “if”.

A victory is only possible if outstation voters go back to their birthplace to vote and infect their friends and family with the impetus for change.

If this wave of support from the Klang Valley, Johor and Penang moves to rural Malaysia, Hisomuddin was confident that an upset is on the cards.

The good news for PH is that outstation voters have begun returning to their hometowns to vote. Convoys of vehicles were seen heading to Kelantan from Kuala Lumpur.

For all their fighting talk, PH leaders know that the unprecedented crowds and enthusiasm they are seeing at nightly political rallies need to be replicated across West Malaysia if Najib Razak and Barisan Nasional is to be defeated.

Bersatu deputy president Muhkriz Mahathir has said that PH needs “an injection of spirit” from supporters living outside Kedah to return home to vote on Wednesday.

The Ilham Centre research also found that PH chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad is likely to wrest control of the Langkawi parliamentary constituency, despite going up against the BN candidate who won by 11,861 votes in the last elections.

The study also found PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s talk of the party being kingmakers and winning many seats in GE14 is likely to fall flat.

The Islamist party is not likely to have much traction outside Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. – May 8, 2018.