SABAH’S crowded political scene will see no major victors in the 14th general election, said a state think tank.

Progressive Institute of Public Policy Analysis Sabah chairman Amde Sidek said the opposition Parti Warisan Sabah can win big, but cannot form the state government by itself, and that Barisan Nasional will likely retain control of the state’s east coast.

He said Warisan still lacks Kadazandusun Murut and Rungus (KDMR) support, which goes to the United Sabah Alliance (USA).

“While BN can still take control of the east coast, elsewhere, in the interior and west coast, it may not be able to capture as many seats as it did in GE13.

“On the other hand, Warisan will not win enough seats to form the government by itself. It will probably get more seats in the east coast compared with other opposition parties, but elsewhere, the party faces USA, which is strong in the interior.”

There are three main coalitions in Sabah, namely BN, USA and Warisan-Pakatan Harapan. The state has 22 KDMR seats, which are concentrated in the west coast and interior.

Amde, who is also Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) deputy president, said KDMR communities are worried that Warisan president Mohd Shafie Apdal will encourage the influx of Suluk from southern Philippines, given his heritage.

Shafie is a Bajau, he said, and currently, there are more than a million Suluk in Sabah.

“Allegations of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s involvement in the flooding of illegal immigrants in the state are, in fact, true, based on the findings of the royal commission of inquiry on illegal immigrants.

“Unfortunately, six years after the RCI was established, the findings have yet to be made known to the public.”

He said the presence of such immigrants, who have since been given Malaysian citizenship, angers Shafie’s supporters, adding that it is an open secret that immigrants had been used to win elections during Shafie’s Umno years.

Amde said if Shafie wins power, there will be a higher expectation among the Suluk that Sabah belongs to them, in view of the Sulu claim over the state.

“If this happens, Warisan, being a new party with members who have a history of jumping from one party to another, could see an exodus, where members leave for parties that have the upper hand, like the stable USA pact.”

USA comprise the State Reform Party, led by Bingkor assemblyman Dr Jeffrey Kitingan; Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah, led by Klias assemblyman Lajim Ukin; SAPP, led by former chief minister Yong Teck Lee; and, Parti Perpaduan Rakyat Sabah, led by Mohd Arshad Abdul Maulap.

Amde said, however, Sabahans will likely not take to the streets in anger if this were to happen, as what they did when Berjaya beat the United Sabah National Organisation in 1976 and when Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) emerged victorious against Berjaya in 1985.

He said historically, the Sabah political scene has always been tame compared with peninsula politics.

“It is only recently that Sabah has begun to fashion its politics after the peninsula’s, a culture imported by DAP.

“Only DAP takes this robust approach in Sabah, and this is why it still has a long way to go before it can be accepted, especially in rural areas.”

He said even during the rise and fall of the Berjaya and PBS state governments, Sabahans who took to the streets had been influenced by “federal leaders”.

Citing the 1986 racial riots, he said political hands had turned protests sparked by dissatisfaction with polls results into a racial matter. – May 7, 2018.