SARAWAKIANS are living in their own bubble.

They appear insulated from the poisonous politics of Putrajaya, and have less direct contact with the arrogance and excesses of Umno politicians.

As such, they do not have the same impetus for a regime change as those living in the peninsula, said Tasmania University analyst James Chin.

The lack of impetus is also due to local parties, particularly the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), expertly rebranding themselves as Sarawak nationalists.

“People in Sarawak are living in a bubble. Nothing that happens in the peninsula affects them,” said Chin.

The analyst, who has been tracking politics in the state, feels that the opposition collectively will win the same number of seats as it did in the 2013 general election.

He said it may lose some seats, but the new seats it is expected to win will cancel out the losses.

DAP holds five urban seats, namely Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sibu, Lanang and Sarikei, while PKR has Miri.

State BN chairman Abang Johari Openg was a picture of confidence, on Saturday predicting that the coalition will win 28 of the state’s 31 federal seats.

Before the dissolution of Parliament, the four-party state BN held 25 seats, with lead component Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) holding 14 seats, Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) (6), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) (4) and the Chinese-based Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) (1).

Abang Johari is confident that PBB, PRS and PDP will retain all their seats, and is optimistic that SUPP, the weakest member of the coalition, will be able to snatch one or two seats from rival DAP.

He is circumspect as to which seats they are, but party sources said he is referring to Sarikei and Sibu in central Sarawak, as well as PKR’s problematic Miri seat.

Chin said DAP stands to lose Sarikei due to “unpopular incumbent” Wong Ling Biu, but it will likely be able to hang on to Sibu, where SUPP candidate Andrew Wong needs a “20% swing in Chinese votes to win”.

Ling Biu won Sarikei by the skin of the teeth in the 2013 general election, scraping through by 505 votes.

Chin said the keenly watched battle of the heavyweights in Stampin between SUPP president Dr Sim Kui Hian, and state DAP and PH chairman Chong Chieng Jen will go the latter’s way “by a narrow margin”.

He said the winning majority for the seat of 66,240 voters, 64% of whom are Chinese, could be “1,000 to 2,000 only”.

Another party chief who could lose is state PKR chairman Baru Bian in the rural Iban-majority seat of Selangau, where PRS is using his ethnicity – Baru is a Lun Bawang from Ba Kelalan – against him in its campaign.

PKR could also lose Miri, the only seat it won in GE13, with reports claiming that voters in the oil town in northern Sarawak are “fed up with their lazy MP”, Dr Michael Teo.

On the other hand, the party is “quietly confident” about winning Saratok and Baram, with state PKR deputy elections director Bahanruddin Mokshen saying lessons learnt from the 2013 general election are being put to good use to secure victory. – May 7, 2018.