BARISAN Nasional will likely keep its parliamentary and state seats in Penang’s Malay areas, thanks to the strength of its lynchpin party, Umno, in such constituencies, and the problems afflicting Pakatan Harapan’s election machinery.

Elections researcher Hisommuddin Bakar said Umno will keep the three parliamentary seats it won in Penang in 2013 – Balik Pulau, Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor.

Of the 10 state seats BN holds in the PH-led state, most of them are under its three federal seats.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommuddin said PH has had problems campaigning in Balik Pulau, as the local machinery had followed the local leader, PKR’s Balik Pulau division chief Abdul Halim Hussain, to the Batu Maung state seat, where he is contesting in the 14th general election.

But, PH is expected to retain its 29 state and 10 parliamentary seats.

“Bakhtiar has to bring in his machinery from outside,” said Hisomuddin, referring to PH’s Balik Pulau candidate, Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik, who is contesting the seat for a second time after losing to BN’s Dr Hilmi Yahaya in 2013 by 1,539 votes.

Bakhtiar has said he is relying on voters’ anger over the goods and services tax and undelivered promises by BN.

Beyond that, he is not a strong candidate, unlike BN’s Hilmy, who is a local.

In BN’s two other Penang federal seats, said Hisomuddin, the coalition will maintain the status quo as it is dominant in both constituencies.

“People there will still vote for the party, even if they are somewhat unhappy.”

Kepala Batas’ incumbent and defender is caretaker deputy foreign affairs minister Reezal Merican Naina Merican, who won the seat by 4,176 votes in 2013. It is also the home ground of former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, its previous MP who is still much respected there.

In Tasek Gelugor, BN’s Shabudin Yahaya won the seat by 3,042 votes in the last polls.

Both seats got a boost when BN chairman and caretaker prime minister Najib Razak made campaign stops last Saturday. He criticised PH in his speeches, and promised to approve some funds and infrastructure projects in the constituencies.

His promises appeared to work for locals such as Noraini Ahmad, 61, a Tasek Gelugor voter, who said she is pleased with BN’s pledge to build a health clinic in Teluk Air Tawar, a new mosque in Sungai Dua and a multi-storey car park at the train station in Permatang Berangan if the coalition retains Putrajaya.

“BN will retain the federal government. BN will win in Tasek Gelugor. As regular citizens, we should just accept what is good and reject the bad.”

But, Penang Bersatu information chief Yaakob Osman dismissed Najib’s visits as “a game of perception”.

“He comes, and huge crowds turn up at his events. The fanfare makes BN look strong in these seats.

“But Malays are keeping quiet. When Malays are quiet, BN worries.”

He believes that unhappiness with GST, the high cost of living and scandals plaguing the BN administration will ultimately sway voters.

He said Najib would not have visited Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor, which are being contested by PH’s Amanah and Umno splinter Bersatu, if support on the ground was not shifting. – May 7, 2018.