HAIRI Edrawan is in a complaining mood in Felda Chempelak Barat, and his main beef is with how the price of palm oil under the Najib administration has deteriorated.

Under former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, the price was around RM800 a tonne, while the current price is stuck at around RM400.

“But when I buy pesticide and fertiliser, I have to pay GST (goods and services tax) and that adds to my cost,” said the 69-year-old, who supports a family of seven with his monthly income of RM3,000.

Depending on the quality of the pesticides and fertilisers used, a settler typically spends around RM5,000-RM7,000 a year on his smallholding.

His son, Wahid, who used to work in the Johor menteri besar’s office between 1992 and 1997, said the situation was very fluid now, as many second-generation settlers had better access to information.

“Unlike many of the first-generation settlers who can’t read, we have Facebook and WhatsApp,” Wahid said, before going for Friday prayers.

The father and son said support for the opposition in their Felda settlement, which sits in the Tenang/Labis constituency, is now split 50-50.

The Felda vote

A research paper published by the Ishak Yusof Institute (Iseas) last month indicated that Barisan Nasional’s Felda vote bank of 1.2 million voters has fallen significantly in nearly three-quarters of the 317 Felda schemes in the peninsula since 2004.

Out of 52 parliamentary seats with Felda schemes, only 14 seats can be considered stable or slightly below stable.

Twelve out of 14 comprise 85% Malay voters, with Chinese and Indian voters being above 65%.

Among the 14 stable seats, the seat that saw the lowest decline was Pekan from 78% (2004) to 76.6% (2013), while the biggest drop was in Mersing, from 80.5% (2004) to 71.5% (2013).

The paper, published by Iseas researcher Geoffrey Kevin Pakiam, said 17 out of 40 Felda seats had seen rapid declines in their support for BN between 2004 and 2013, with 14 of them being mixed constituencies.

The largest drop was recorded by Tebrau, from 84.1% (2004) to 51.1% (2013).

Other constituencies that saw rapid declines were Ledang (76.9%-51.7%), Cameron Highlands (72.1%-45.9%), Simpang Renggam (79.7%-58.4%), Alor Gajah (80.2%-60.8%) and Tampin, which has nine Felda schemes (80.4%-61.7%).

Pakiam said that the decline correlated with the ethnic composition of the seats, but it was still difficult to predict the Felda vote after PAS’ exit from the main opposition bloc.

“The resulting multi-cornered fights may split the anti-establishment vote,” he added.

Is PAS a factor?

Back at Felda Sri Ledang, Rizal Bujang, 37, had just missed Muhyiddin Yassin’s ceramah  after being delayed at the kenduri his family hosted the previous night.

“I wanted to listen to him,” said Rizal, who now lives in Kota Tinggi.

“But I’m glad to see many turned up tonight for Muhyiddin. It shows that more settlers are willing to give the opposition a chance,” said the Umno branch secretary.

He complained that there was little opposition activity in Kota Tinggi.

Another second-generation settler, Ahmad Arbi, 45, was convinced Muhyiddin would win here because of the goodwill he had built.

“This is the first time the opposition has held a ceramah here,” he said.

“Many here are still upset that he was sacked for questioning (caretaker) prime minister Najib Razak.”

Although he voted PAS and BN in previous elections, Ahmad said the Islamist party would have no impact in Felda Sri Ledang.

“We don’t even see them here, even though it’s election season and they have fielded a candidate,” he said.

Apart from a few PAS flags along Jalan Panchor, there were no posters of the PAS candidate, Ahmad Nawfal Mahfodz. There were only BN’s state candidate Mohd Noor Taib (Bukit Kepong) and Muhyiddin’s posters.

If posters are any indication, PAS is a non-factor in the Johor Felda schemes and the fight is still between BN and Pakatan Harapan. – May 6, 2018.