PAKATAN Harapan has the edge over Barisan Nasional in terms of popular vote but it is insufficient for the opposition to win Putrajaya, if the elections were to take place today.

According to Merdeka Centre’s findings, PH has 43.7%,of the popular vote, BN has 40.3% and PAS, 16%.

“However, BN will still form the government despite getting less of the popular vote,” said Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian when presenting his findings in Kuala Lumpur today.

In the 2013 election, Pakatan Rakyat received 51% of the popular vote compared with BN’s 47%. The opposition took 89 seats and BN, 133 seats.

If elections were held today, BN is projected to receive 51.2% of Malay votes, 14.7% Chinese votes, 49% Indian votes, and more than 90% of the votes of other ethnic groups.

Pakatan would receive 27.8% of Malay votes, 85.3% (Chinese), 50.8% (Indian) and less than 5% (others), while PAS will receive 20.9% (Malays), less than 1% (Chinese), less than 1% (Indian) and less than 5% (others).

Ibrahim said Pakatan appeared to be slowly gaining ground in Kedah and Johor, and was likely to retain Selangor and Penang.

“Support levels among Malay voters for Barisan may decline slightly, but they remain in a position to maintain their lead,” he said, referring to a survey of 700 respondents from mid-April to May 1.

“PAS’ ‘kingmaker’ gambit is likely to fail. A lot of Pakatan’s gains will be at the expense of PAS. In our estimate for Kedah, we think PAS will be wiped out,” he said, adding PAS was also likely to see  defeat on along the west coast of the peninsula.

Ibrahim noted there was a several percent increase in undecided voters, in particular Chinese voters, from less decided to undecided since nomination day.

“Now, 14% chinese voters say they are not sure. We think the phenomenon took place when the candidates were revealed.

“We really can’t tell whether they really are undecided or they don’t want to tell us. But we do notice in many places where you do more have that one opposition choices, that there’s a rise in undecided voters.

“This is particularly true for Chinese voters who are voting in Malay-dominant constituencies. The candidate can be an ex-PAS  person joining Amanah or a former Umno person who is now a member of Bersatu. There is an element of uncertainty, of not knowing who the candidate is,” he said, citing Pandan Indah as example.

“Undecided voters tend to be non-partisan, less idealogical. It may be a situation where voters are trying to find out who the candidates are and what are their positions.” – May 2, 2018.