MOHAMAD Romi Ilias embodies the difficulty of dethroning Barisan Nasional despite widespread anger about the rising prices of goods because of the ruling coalition’s policies.

For the 45-year-old entrepreneur, there is no political alternative but PAS, because it is the only party that fights for Islamic principles.

Voters like Romi represent the 13% of support PAS enjoys nationwide, according to a March survey by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

PAS’ rivals in the Pakatan Harapan coalition have 41% support, while BN garnered 42% support from the survey’s 4,720 respondents nationwide.

IDE’s Prof Mohammad Redzuan Othman said if PAS and PH combined their support levels, it would total 54%, higher than the popular vote the Pakatan Rakyat coalition received in the 2013 general election.

So even if there is tsunami of discontent against BN on May 9, indications are – based on the IDE survey – the anti-BN vote will be split between BN and PAS, giving victory to the former.

PAS is taking on both BN and PH in 160 parliamentary seats nationwide in GE14.

A separate survey by the Merdeka Centre showed that there was a 7.9% swing in Malay votes against BN but this was not enough to defeat the ruling coalition as it was split between PH and PAS.

“BN can only be brought down if PH can decrease the amount of support for PAS and bring those voters to their side,” Redzuan said.

In certain places, such as Selangor, this is already happening. PAS’ support level in the state has come down to 11% as of last week. Last month, PAS support in Selangor was 13%, said Redzuan, who is also vice-chancellor of Universiti Selangor.

PAS’ support can be divided into three categories – card-carrying members, supporters who are not members, and those who voted for PAS because it was the only opposition party in the constituency.

PAS is expected to lose the last two categories of supporters but active members are likely to remain loyal, he said.

However, active PAS members are only expected to make up between 5% and 8% of the more than 12 million total voters, Redzuan added. Most are concentrated in Kelantan and Terengganu where their numbers almost rival that of BN’s Umno.

“It is still early days in the campaign. Whether or not BN can be brought down will depend on whether PH can convince as many PAS supporters as possible that a vote for PAS is a vote for Umno.” – May 1, 2018.