TOURIST arrivals in Malaysia for the first half of the year were posted yesterday on the Tourism Malaysia website. Total arrivals came up to 9,160,069 – a massive 329.6% increase compared to the same period last year.

Except for arrivals from Saudi Arabia, which registered double-digit growth of 85.3%, triple-digit increases or higher were recorded among arrivals from 44 countries, including China (1,182.5%), Taiwan (1,569.3%), Russia (1,899.5%), and Brunei (5,899.8%).

Such astronomical growth will not be repeated in the second half of the year as large numbers of tourists had arrived in the second half of 2022, following the lifting of travel restrictions in April and the easing of Covid-19 conditions in May.

In the second half of last year, 7,938,804 tourists landed in Malaysia, compared to 2,132,160 in the first half, making for a total of 10,070,964 tourist arrivals in 2022.  last year. The average of 1.5 million arrivals a month continued into  2023.

Last year, I projected that tourist arrivals would reach 18 million in 2023. So far, we are on track. I also predicted that arrivals would grow to 24 million in 2024, 30 million in 2025, 36 million in 2026, and peak at 42 million in 2027.

However, in the recent Budget 2024 presentation, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said 2026 is Visit Malaysia Year (VMY) and that the government is targeting 26.1 million tourist arrivals and RM97.6 billion in revenue that year.

VMY 2026 targets are close to those achieved in 2019, when we received 26.1 million tourists and earned RM89.4 billion in inbound tourism expenditure, in addition to 84.7 million domestic tourists and RM92.6 billion in domestic tourism expenditure.

My prediction of many more tourist arrivals in the coming years was premised on the government granting visa-free entry for people from countries such as China, India and Bangladesh, a privilege that has long been granted to citizens of 163 other countries.

Visa-free entry does not mean that all foreigners can enter Malaysia freely. They are still subject to scrutiny by our Immigration officers, and they are trained to detect suspicious characters.

There is no reason to believe that the citizens of China, India and Bangladesh pose greater risks than the citizens of 163 other countries as their incomes are fast rising and their rapidly expanding middle-class populations offer the greatest potential for tourist arrivals.

But if we wish to maintain the status quo because of an antiquated mindset, then arrivals in the coming years will remain the same as in pre-pandemic years. In the decade from 2010 to 2019, tourist arrivals plateaued, averaging 25.8 million a year.

As announced in Budget 2024, the government will only be upgrading the visa-on-arrival facilities, social visit passes, and multiple entry visas to encourage visits from tourists and investors, especially from India and China. 

If we are dishing out more of the same, the results will remain unchanged while it will be easy to attract 10 million more visitors simply by granting them visa-free entry.

To ascertain its viability, run a pilot project to grant a 14-day visa-free entry to nationals from China, India and Bangladesh. Not only would tourism boom but so would trade and investments when we are perceived to be friendlier.

After the trial period, we could consider granting visa-free entry for 30 days to these groups, as we do to citizens of 94 other countries, before upgrading the visa to 90 days as acccorded to nationals from 66 other nations.

Or we could do nothing and stay content with an average of 25.8 million tourist arrivals per year from 2023 to 2032, repeating what was achieved from 2010 to 2019. We can remain stagnant while other countries, especially Asean nations, race ahead.

In any case, the profile of tourists would differ from that of those came in 2019. The greatest increases will come from countries in Southeast Asia, followed countries South Asia and East Asia. The biggest drop will be in long-haul markets from Europe and North America.

In 2019, foreign tourists stayed for an average of 6.2 nights but that dropped to 3.9 nights this year. Apart from shorter stays, an even greater percentage are travelling on their own and not in tour groups. 

They could stay in licensed hotels or private residences, dine in restaurants, and shop at a variety of places. Hence, accommodation providers, food and beverage outlets and retail stores are the main beneficiaries, along with transport providers, such as e-hailing services. – October 17, 2023.

* Y. S. Chan reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.