THERE are no signs yet that a political “tsunami” is brewing among Malay voters, analysts said, as the official campaigning period begins today.

They, however, did not dismiss the possibility that a sway among Malay voters, which will threaten Barisan Nasional’s hold on power, could occur in the 11 days before polling day on May 9.

In the 2008 elections, a huge shift in voter sentiment against BN was only detected three days before the March 8 polling day, said Prof Mohammad Redzuan Othman, adding that indications are this will also likely be the case in the 14th general election.

“Right now (on nomination day), it’s status quo. Both BN and PH (Pakatan Harapan) cannot say that things have changed. We’ll just have to wait,” said Redzuan, who is Universiti Selangor’s (UNISEL) vice-chancellor. His nationwide survey in March showed that support for BN was 42% while PH was at 41%.

Although PH has pulled in huge ceramah crowds through its prime minister-designate Dr Mahathir Mohamad, it is still unclear whether those who showed up will vote for the coalition.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said political sentiment among the Malays was not homogenous and depended on factors, such as locality, occupation and education level.

The Malay support towards PH, for instance, has grown in urban and suburban areas in Johor, Malacca and Negri Sembilan and is high in Selangor and Kedah, said Hisommudin, adding that in Perak, the campaign mood is still muted because of friction within both BN and PH camps.

“Right now, we can see more support for PH in certain areas but it is not enough to call it a tsunami.”

Another analyst, Associate Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said in Kelantan – another battleground state – it is still not clear which coalition will win it, as activists from BN and PAS said they are not confident of their chances, while PH’s machinery lacks foot soldiers to canvass for support.

Past surveys found that Islamist party PAS is likely to lose control of its crown jewel Kelantan over what voters claim are its failure to provide adequate local council services.

A recent Merdeka Centre survey showed that PH needs to gain another 10% to 14% Malay support in the peninsula if it is to stand a realistic chance of capturing Putrajaya.

The survey found, on average, a 7.9% Malay swing against BN but this, however, was not enough to unseat BN, owing to a split in votes for PH and PAS in most seats. – April 28, 2018.